S&P - what does the latest up-move tell us in regards to long term outlook?

Being wrong is part of the game. Let’s deal with it.

Our cycles analysis projection method naturally includes making mistakes. An important aspect of cycles analysis science is recognizing the inevitability of errors and understanding that mechanisms for review and learning are important. Cycles analysis involves exploring new projections without having fear of making mistakes. When specific market actions and behaviors don't align with the projections, it doesn't necessarily invalidate the entire approach. Science constantly evolves through identifying and rectifying errors.

The October short-term projection¹ about the year-end difficulties, which have been expected to vanish the strong seasonality was off. No other interpretation, period.

So let’s revisit what are the stronger cyclic forces that diluted that projection?

In cycles analysis it is equally important to detect when a current projection is off. The concept of FLD is helpful in using current price action to confirm if identified cycles come into play or not. I did this update already in November on the possible wrong October projection back in late November. The summary for the altering projection of 20. Nov. can also be reviewed here². If you don’t follow me on my weekly updates, I recommend you join me there for weekly talks.

The key point here is:

We missed taking the long term cycles into play which seem to have a significant impact on market behavior. So I want to update those and also add the new projection based on that.

The video update will show you the context of some strong longer cycles in play which could be important moving into 2024.

And we need to stick to the original long-term cycles model originally published 2021 here³

Regards,
Lars

1. Reference to the October article:

US business cycles & implications for investors

2. Reference to the alert on changing projection end Nov,:

3. Long term 2021 cycles model:

Weekly S&P500 cycles rolling over

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