Wall Street Dominant Cycle Update – 15 Jan 2026
Markets Fragmented, Cycles Tightening: Why Time Is Becoming the Key Variable
Wall Street navigated the latest session with noticeable stress but without systemic damage. The Dow Jones recovered most intraday losses, while the S&P 500 and especially the Nasdaq lagged, with tech under pronounced pressure. Beneath the surface, however, market breadth held up better than headline indices suggested.
Cyclical sectors such as materials, energy and selected industrials continued to attract flows, driven by surging commodity prices. In contrast, large-cap technology, software and parts of the financial sector faced renewed selling pressure. Defensive consumer names provided selective stabilization.
The real center of gravity remains outside equities. Commodities, particularly precious and industrial metals, are experiencing extreme, volatility-driven moves. These dynamics increasingly dominate cross-asset behavior and feed directly into sector rotation, margin pressure and macro uncertainty.
Sentiment remains fragile and highly reactive. While seasonality still allows for a potential rebound later in January, the signals from rates, currencies and commodities argue for caution. Against this backdrop, timing and cycle positioning become more important than directional conviction.
This brings us to the most critical component of this update: the dominant cycle analysis across global core assets.
Dominant Cycle Analysis – Time Cycles Take Center Stage
Our time-cycle framework continuously filters approximately 60 international core assets, including major global equity indices, sectors, futures and macro instruments. Each asset undergoes a daily cycle analysis to assess whether it is approaching a potential cyclical high (top) or cyclical low (trough). The resulting ratings are ranked by priority.
As defined, ratings above +6 or below –6 mark potential candidates for meaningful turning points.
