US Treasury Yield 30y | Cycle Analysis
Cycles TV | 27 May 2024
Summary
The video discusses the long-term US Treasury yield and its potential impact on the stock market. It analyzes weekly and daily cycles to predict future trends in yield. The analysis suggests that there may be a short period of decreasing yields followed by an upward trend in the second half of 2024. The video also mentions the inverted yield curve and its possible normalization. Overall, the analysis provides timing information for decision-making processes but does not consider economic conditions or provide financial advice.
Key Insights
The analysis focuses on the long-term 30-year US Treasury yield and its potential impact on the stock market. By analyzing cycles, the video aims to provide timing information for decision-making processes.
The analysis starts with a longer historical dataset to identify the key cycles and then shortens the data to focus on the current phase of the dominant cycle.
The daily analysis suggests a possible short period of decreasing yields followed by an upward trend in the second half of 2024.
The weekly analysis confirms the findings of the daily analysis and indicates a bottom in the short term, followed by increasing yields in late 2024.
The composite model of the weekly cycles shows periods of cancellation and acceleration in price movements, highlighting the interaction between the two dominant cycles.
The analysis does not consider economic conditions or provide financial advice. It focuses solely on time-based cycle analysis and its potential implications for the stock market.
The inverted yield curve is briefly mentioned, and it is suggested that the normalization of the curve may indicate possible trouble for the US economy and stock market. However, further analysis is needed to draw conclusions about the economic impact.
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