US Marktes Cycle Update | Russel 2000
21. Jan. 2026
Composite Cycle & Price Alignment Analysis
Russel 2000 Index
Current reference point: 01/21/2026 (small dot on the fuchsia composite cycle)
Next composite cycle turn: BOTTOM expected ~03/13/2026
Historical Alignment: Composite Cycle vs Price
Across the full analysis window (mid‑2021 to early‑2026), the fuchsia composite cycle turns have shown strong temporal alignment with price trend changes:
Major TOP cycle turns (e.g., Sep‑2021, Dec‑2021, Nov‑2024, Dec‑2025, Jan‑2026) coincided closely with price exhaustion and subsequent pullbacks.
Major BOTTOM cycle turns (e.g., Jun‑2022, Oct‑2023, Apr‑2025, Nov‑2025) aligned with trend reversals or acceleration points to the upside.
This recurring alignment underpins the high effectiveness of the cycle‑based swing strategy and confirms that the composite cycle is well synchronized with dominant market rhythm, even as volatility regimes changed.
Current cRSI Indicator Assessment
The cRSI indicator is visible at the bottom of the chart and is therefore incorporated.
Current cRSI State (as of 01/20–01/21/2026)
Condition: Overbought
Above upper band: Yes
Signal: No fresh sell signal (overbought condition is ongoing, not a crossover)
Historical Context
The last confirmed buy signal occurred on 11/26/2025, shortly after a composite BOTTOM (11/18/2025).
The last sell signal occurred on 10/10/2025, near a composite TOP (09/26/2025).
Divergence Check
Bearish divergence starting to setup.
Interpretation:
