Stock Market Cycles

Stock Market Cycles

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Stock Market Cycles
Stock Market Cycles
Too calm to rise? Update II

Too calm to rise? Update II

Or just the calm before the storm

Lars von Thienen's avatar
Lars von Thienen
Feb 09, 2025
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Stock Market Cycles
Stock Market Cycles
Too calm to rise? Update II
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I did introduced this concept on Dec. 8 with nailing the top, following a 8% drop. Re-read here:

Too calm to rise?

Too calm to rise?

Lars von Thienen
·
December 8, 2024
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The concept is related to cycles in market internals.

The stock market tends to peak when it's been chugging along quietly without much drama. On the flip side, bottoms happen when the market is full of fear and lots of short-term volatility. You can track this using behind-the-scenes market internals.

One indicator I created, called "CALM," shows how settled or unsettled the US stock market is. High CALM readings mean the market's been reasonably peaceful, while low CALM means a lot of noise and turbulence. Tops usually happen when the market's super calm, and bottoms when it's super loud. Lets revisit the latest market behavior and what this concepts shows us today.

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