The floor under the metals. While small caps deliver the first topping confirmation
Global Dominant Cycle Watch — July 5, 2026 | Chart of the Day: Palladium
Palladium hits the model’s bullish maximum with a confirmed turn as the metals floor upgrades while small caps deliver the first topping confirmation
US markets went into the long Independence Day weekend on a split tape. In Thursday’s session, the last before the holiday close, the S&P 500 ended about flat while the Nasdaq fell 0.80% and the Russell 2000 lost 0.55%. The equal-weight S&P gained 0.70% and the Dow advanced 1.14%, so the selling was concentrated in the crowded chip and hardware complex while insurance, software, healthcare, staples, utilities, and materials carried the broad market. The June jobs report came in soft at +57K payrolls, yet two-year yields dipped only slightly, a muted reaction that speaks to lingering inflation concerns. The dollar index slipped 0.50% and Brent ended about flat near $71.60.
The story of the day is confirmation stacking up on the metals floor while the equity topping side adds its first momentum signal. Palladium reaches the model’s bullish maximum at +100 with bear exit, the bears throw in the towel and the downswing appears broken, and silver upgrades to the same confirmed state at +79. Thursday’s metals rally puts price behind both signals. On the other side, the Russell 2000 moves to bull fatigue at -81, the first US equity index in this sequence to pair its topping score with a momentum reading.
The cycle model analyzes roughly 45 global markets across equities, rates, commodities, and currencies. The Consensus Score runs from -100 to +100 and works like a school grade for how strongly the cycles agree that a turn is approaching, positive for a possible turn up and negative for a possible turn down. A reading at or beyond 60 marks the critical zone, where the model raises the alarm for a possible turn. Let’s take a closer look.
