The euro turns up while rising yields push back
Chart of the Day: Euro FX Futures | 01. August 2026
The euro turns up right on schedule while rising yields push back on the model’s rates call
Amazon’s blow-out AWS quarter did the heavy lifting on Friday. The S&P 500, the Dow and the Nasdaq finished higher on the back of it, and the report lifted the other hyperscalers with it, even though yields spiked further and several earnings reactions elsewhere disappointed. The strength was narrower than the headline indices suggested, since the equal-weight S&P and the Russell 2000 both lagged. Apple was hit hard after its Thursday report, with pressure in services revenue and September guidance below plan.
The AI debate sharpened. Amazon raised its capex budget for the year to $220 billion from $200 billion and made the growth case for AI compute, while the bears point at the same report’s weak free cash flow as the clearest illustration of the industry’s cash question. The three hawkish Fed dissenters argued their case on Friday morning, a reminder that Wednesday’s decision to hold was contested, and the coming week brings the ISMs, a heavy earnings slate and the July jobs report. For our cycle work, the Fed window we described on Wednesday has resolved, and it resolved in two directions at once. That is the story of the day. The euro completed its projected turn at the model’s strongest possible bottoming reading while the dollar reached the strongest possible topping reading on the same session, and the rise in yields pushed back against the rates side of the call exactly along the invalidation line we had named.
Each day we filter roughly 45 global markets (equity indices and sectors, metals, energy, agriculture, crypto, FX, and rates) through our cycle consensus engine. The key reading is the Consensus Score, which ranges from -100 to +100 and measures how strongly the dominant cycles of a market agree on a potential turning point. Values at or beyond ±60 mark the critical zone, the range where the cycle model raises the alarm for a possible turn and a market earns a place in the tables below. Let’s take a closer look.
