The Duration of the Current Bitcoin Bull Cycle
How Much Longer Will the Good Times Last?
The following content is a summary of my presentation at the FSC cycles summit 26. June 2024. This is my personal view and analysis for my own usage. Saied that, this is no recommendation.
Summary
I was discussing Bitcoin cycles, including the 200-day nominal cycle, seasonality, and the halving cycle, projecting a bullish trend until early 2025.
Key Insights
Dynamic cycles help in pinpointing future cycle turns with more accuracy.
Aligning different cycle data points such as the 200-day cycle, seasonality, and the halving cycle enhances forecasting precision.
Patterns of three and five cycle repetitions can provide valuable insights into future trends.
While timing patterns indicate a bullish trend until early 2025, projecting specific price targets involves additional analysis.
Main Chart
The main chart includes:
The active dominant nominal 200d cycle pattern (shown as grey zigzag overlay)
The count of 5 for the bull pattern to end (numbered dots)
The seasonality (shown at the top)
The 400d after the halving cycle impact window
The halving cycle 400d impact after halving, the seasonality and the 200d dynamic time cycle indicates a bullish phase starting October 2024 until May 2025.
Watch the full 1h presentation at the FSC summit
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