Silicon Swings

Cycle Analysis Signals Looming Downturn for the PHLX Semiconductor Index

Tuning In to the Rhythm of the Markets

TL;DR - PHLX Semiconductor Index

• Historical Alignment: The fuchsia composite cycle overlay has demonstrated a strong correlation with major turning points in the price series. Past cycle tops and bottoms have closely matched price peaks and troughs, validating the cycle’s effectiveness as a timing tool. For example, the cycle top in May 2024 aligned with the price high near 5317, and the subsequent cycle bottom in August 2024 matched the price correction to around 4567. This pattern of alignment continues throughout the sample.

• Current Position: Today’s price (7156.95) is near the recent highs, and the composite cycle is just past its top, now projecting downward toward its next major bottom.

• Future Outlook (Until Next Cycle Turn): The next expected major turn for the composite cycle is a bottom projected for 01/29/2026. From today until that date, the cycle overlay forecasts a declining phase, suggesting a bearish outlook for the price. Historically, when the cycle transitions from top to bottom, the price has tended to follow the same direction with notable corrections.

Dominant Cycle Analysis