Shanghai finds a floor while the bond market starts moving the way the cycles projected

Chart of the Day: Shanghai Composite - 25. July 2026

The S&P 500 finished about flat, while the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 slipped a little. The other side of the tape told a different story, because the Dow climbed 0.45%. So the average stock had a good day while the big technology names weighed on the cap-weighted indices. Silver rose 1.1% and Bitcoin fell 1.5%.

The driver behind the tech weakness sits away from geopolitics. Investors are reassessing how sustainable the data-center build-out is when capital spending outruns the cash those businesses generate.

For our cycle work, Friday is the day a two-week projection completed itself. The story of the day is a triple arrival, three markets reach the model’s strongest possible reading for an upward turn at the same time, each with a broken downswing behind it, and price has started to move their way.

Each day we filter roughly 45 global markets (equity indices and sectors, metals, energy, agriculture, crypto, FX, and rates) through our cycle consensus engine. The key reading is the Consensus Score, which ranges from -100 to +100 and measures how strongly the dominant cycles of a market agree on a potential turning point. Values at or beyond ±60 mark the critical zone, a critical reading at which the cycle model raises the alarm for a possible turn, and a market at that level earns a place in the tables below.

Let’s take a closer look.