ServiceNow - Cycle Status Update
➡️ Recovery / tactical upside phase
Composite Cycle & Technical Outlook Report (No financial advice)
Asset: ServiceNow
Analysis date: 01/12/2026
Focus window: From today (cycle dot) → next composite cycle turn only
1. Composite Cycle vs. Price Behavior (Historical Validation)
The fuchsia composite cycle has shown strong alignment with major trend changes in the blue price series throughout the in-sample and early out-of-sample periods:
2022–2024: Cycle tops and bottoms consistently coincided with meaningful price reversals, especially at:
Sep 2022 top → subsequent decline
Dec 2022 bottom → sustained rally
Jun 2023 top → corrective phase
Mar 2024 top → consolidation and pullback
2024–2025: The cycle continued to correctly frame medium-term swings, including:
Dec 2024 cycle top near price peak
Mar 25, 2025 cycle bottom preceding a rebound
Jun 23, 2025 cycle top followed by renewed weakness
Overall, the composite cycle has been directionally reliable for turning-point timing, not magnitude, and price has repeatedly respected the cycle’s inflection points.
2. Current Position on the Composite Cycle (Today’s Dot)
Today: 01/12/2026
The small dot marks price positioned just after a composite cycle BOTTOM dated 12/26/2025.
From that low, the composite cycle is now rising, projecting an advance into the next major turn.
🔮 Next Expected Composite Cycle Turn
Date: 03/26/2026
Type: TOP
➡️ From today until late March 2026, the composite cycle implies a counter-trend recovery / upswing phase, even though the broader trend has recently been bearish.
3. Price Action Context at Today’s Dot
Current price (~141.8) is:
Well below the Dec 2024 highs
Below mid-2025 trading ranges
The decline into late 2025 aligns closely with the descending phase of the composite cycle, reinforcing the validity of the recent cycle bottom.
Price is currently depressed relative to prior cycle midpoints, consistent with early-stage conditions after a cycle trough.
4. cRSI Indicator Status (Confirmed Visible)
The cyclically tuned RSI at the bottom of the chart provides important confirmation:
✅ Current cRSI Condition
cRSI: 39.50
Lower band: 41.70
Status: Oversold
Signal Assessment
No upward cross of the lower band yet → no confirmed buy signal
No overbought or sell signals present
No bullish or bearish divergence between price and cRSI:
Price and cRSI are both making lower lows, confirming downside momentum into the recent cycle bottom.
📌 Interpretation:
The market is oversold but stabilizing, consistent with a cycle trough environment, though still in the early phase of recovery.
5. Alignment Between Composite Cycle & cRSI
The composite cycle has just turned up from a bottom (12/26/2025).
The cRSI is oversold, historically a condition that often precedes rebounds.
Although the cRSI has not yet triggered a formal buy signal, its oversold state supports the bullish bias implied by the rising composite cycle.
✅ This creates a constructive alignment:
Cycle: Timing window favors upside into March 2026
Momentum: Washed-out conditions, downside pressure likely diminishing
6. Forward Outlook (Strictly Until Next Cycle Turn)
From today → 03/26/2026:
Composite cycle suggests:
A rising phase toward a cycle TOP
Increased probability of price recovery or counter-trend rally
Expectation:
Volatility may remain elevated
Rallies may initially be corrective rather than impulsive
Risk:
Without a cRSI buy crossover yet, early rebounds could be uneven
📌 No projection is made beyond the March 2026 cycle top, per methodology.
7. Strategy Performance Context (Cycle-Based vs. Long-Only)
Historical results strongly favor the cycle-based approach:
Cycle Swing System
Win rate: 82.35%
Total profit: +285.19
Long-only
Total profit: +63.41
➡️ The swing strategy driven by cycle tops and bottoms outperformed buy-and-hold by +221.77 units, validating the practical usefulness of respecting composite cycle turns.
8. Summary Assessment
The composite cycle has just exited a bottoming phase and is pointing higher into late March 2026.
Price weakness into year-end 2025 matched the cycle’s downswing, reinforcing confidence in the current turn.
cRSI is oversold, with no divergence, supporting a developing recovery but signaling patience for confirmation.
Historically, this combination has favored long-biased exposure during the upswing, with caution as the March 2026 cycle top approaches.
Overall Bias (Until Next Turn):
➡️ Recovery / tactical upside phase, with risk management advised as price approaches the projected March 2026 composite cycle TOP.
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