Oil pushes to critical cyclical area as agriculture joins the queue
Global Dominant Cycle Watch — March 31, 2026
Cycle analysis daily, March 31, 2026: oil pushes to +8 as agriculture joins the topping queue
US equities faded after an early bounce on Monday. The S&P 500 lost 25 points (0.39%) to 6,343, the Nasdaq dropped 153 points (0.73%), and the Russell 2000 fell 1.46%. The Dow eked out a small gain of 50 points. Investors once again dismissed the White House’s optimistic framing of negotiations with Iran. The gap between the administration’s rhetoric and actual developments on the ground remains wide: fighting continues unabated, Iran struck critical economic infrastructure over the weekend (including aluminum facilities and a desalination plant in Kuwait), and the Houthis formally entered the war by firing missiles at Israel. Until a senior US official gets on a plane to meet Iranian counterparts, or until Iran’s own commentary turns more constructive, markets are likely to keep fading the happy talk. Our cycle model, meanwhile, is now registering the highest topping reading for oil in several weeks.
Brent rose 1.1% to approximately $113.85 after touching $117 overnight. Gold added 0.5% and silver gained 0.6%. Treasuries rallied with yields falling 7-9bp across the curve, as the market swung from pricing 10bp of Fed hikes to 5bp of cuts. The dollar rose 0.4% broadly but fell against the yen after forceful rhetoric from Japanese officials. Germany’s March CPI accelerated 80bp to 2.8%, a sign that the stagflationary impulse from the Middle East conflict is now washing through the European economy. Tech continued to trade poorly for reasons largely independent of geopolitics, with chips and capital goods among the hardest hit groups. On the constructive side, insurance, healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities outperformed, and it is worth noting that several of these defensive and cyclical names are starting to appear on our bottoming cycles dashboard. The German DAX, in particular, has pushed into the critical zone on the troughing side despite the negative CPI print.
The following cycle analysis filters approximately 60 international core assets, including major global indices and futures contracts. Each asset is subjected to a daily cycle model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The embedded Rating is the key indicator. Values above +7 or below -7 mark potential candidates for cyclical turning points and are therefore prioritized.
