Oil Cycles Flash Topping Signals as Equities Search for a Floor
Global Dominant Cycle Watch — March 29, 2026
US equities sold off broadly on Friday. The S&P 500 dropped 108 points (1.67%) to 5,568, the Dow fell 792 points (1.72%), the Nasdaq lost 460 points (2.15%), and the Russell 2000 slumped 1.75%. The Middle East conflict remains the dominant driver. A second Trump deadline deferral on Iran (now pushed to April 6) did little to calm markets. The Pentagon is reportedly considering 10,000 additional troops for the region, Israel announced an expansion of its campaign on Friday morning, and peace negotiations appear to have stalled. The base case across markets remains that further escalation is more likely than de-escalation. The stagflationary hit to the US economy could last months. However, our cycle models are now picking up early signs that this pressure may be approaching an inflection point, particularly in the energy complex where oil is showing one of the strongest topping signals we have seen in weeks.
Brent crude surged over 5% to approximately $113.80, recovering all of Monday’s 11% decline and finishing the week up roughly $1.60. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and threats to close Bab el-Mandeb continue to support prices. The question from a cyclical perspective is whether this rally still has room to run, or whether it is nearing exhaustion. The cycle data below will show where we stand on that. Treasuries diverged: 2-year yields fell 8bp on safety demand while 10-year and 30-year yields rose 2bp and 5bp respectively, as inflation expectations moved higher. The market is now pricing in approximately 6bp of Fed hikes for the year. Fed official Roberto Perli warned that the pace of government bond purchases would slow after mid-April, while Fed governor Miran suggested the central bank’s balance sheet could shrink by up to $2 trillion without material market disruption. Gold rose 3.25% and silver 2.80%, and it is worth noting that precious metals and miners are also starting to show cyclical bottoming signals. In tech, the selling continued largely independent of geopolitics: software names faced another round of AI disruption-related pressure, and the sector is still dealing with a streamlined OpenAI, a large IPO pipeline, and concerns about legacy software displacement. Carnival was forced to cut its full-year guidance as surging fuel costs offset what would otherwise have been a solid quarter. On the other side, financials were among the hardest hit sectors on Friday (BAC, C, JPM, MS all down sharply), yet our cycle model places them near a potential cyclical low.
The following cycle analysis filters approximately 60 international core assets, including major global indices and futures contracts. Each asset is subjected to a daily cycle model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The embedded Rating is the key indicator. Values above +7 or below -7 mark potential candidates for cyclical turning points and are therefore prioritized. Today’s dashboards show several assets at or near these thresholds. Let’s take a closer look.
