Nat Gas hits the maximum cycle reading as Palladium confirms with bear exit and the topping cluster collapses
Global Dominant Cycle Watch — May 1, 2026
Nat Gas hits the maximum cycle reading as Palladium confirms with bear exit and the topping cluster collapses — May 1, 2026
Thursday’s session was a broad-based rally. The S&P 500 gained 1.02% to close at 7,209, the equal-weight version advanced 1.51%, the Dow jumped 1.62%, and the Russell 2000 surged 2.20% — the breadth that had been absent through last week reasserted itself. The Nasdaq was a relative underperformer at +0.89%. Treasuries caught a bid with yields sliding 1-6bp across the curve. The dollar index sank 0.90%, with the move dominated by a sharp 2.45% drop against the yen following Japanese intervention; the dollar also fell roughly 1.00% against sterling and 0.52% against the euro. Brent crude reversed sharply, falling 3.40% to roughly $114, while gold rose 1.50% and silver jumped 3.35%. Bitcoin advanced to $76,420. The cycle table this morning is a different table from Tuesday’s — Nat Gas Futures returns to the bottoming side at the maximum reading of +100 with a bear exit cRSI, Palladium upgrades from bear exhaustion to bear exit, and the entire commodity topping cluster that anchored the bearish side last week has collapsed. Silver, oil, and copper have all dropped out of the critical zone.
The Q1 earnings backdrop was the main fundamental driver. Inflation data was inline with expectations on both sides of the Atlantic. Q1 US GDP picked up steam from Q4, weekly claims stayed low, and central banks were no more hawkish than feared at their meetings — though the BOE, BOJ, and ECB are all more likely than not to hike at June meetings, with the BOE chief economist already voting to tighten Thursday. Iran remains at a dangerous impasse with the kinetic phase apparently over but Hormuz still shut. Our cycle model is reading the macro shift in commodities directly: precious-metal mining ETFs enter the bottoming table for the first time, gold rallied 1.50% Thursday, and Wheat deepens to a Consensus Score of -77 with a cRSI bull exhaustion confirmation.
Our daily cycle analysis filters approximately 45 international core assets through the CycleConsensus model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The score ranges from -100 (extreme bearish) to +100 (extreme bullish). Assets at or beyond ±60 are in the critical zone where the conditions for a cyclical turn are statistically elevated. The cRSI column adds a momentum confirmation layer. Let’s take a closer look.
