Metal Miners - The Next Cycle Swing
A setup is forming - let the cycles speak.
Mining companies are facing challenges in the current environment, making it increasingly difficult to generate profits. As a result, commodity prices and mining shares have become disconnected.
However, could this be the turning point for mining stocks?
Let's examine dynamic time cycle analysis to gain insight into the situation. Let's delve directly into the cyclical facts and figures.
Cycle analysis for metal miners - long-term
The following content presents scientific cycle analysis results
and is not an investment advise.
You shouldn’t make any decision based solely on what you read here.
» Gold Miners
Gold miners are currently in a dominant 252-week cycle, which is approaching the bottoming phase. This could signal the start of an upward trend for Gold miner stocks, potentially bringing an end to the challenging period experienced since 2020.
Info: The interactive cycle workbooks for this and the following charts is available in the addendum to this post at the bottom for subscribers.
» Silver Miners
When we look at another primary metal, we'll see a comparable cycle lasting 235 weeks in the stocks of silver miners. Just like before, this means that the downward trend for silver miners might have hit its lowest point and is now heading towards a positive outlook as we move into the next phase of that cycle.
Silver miners weekly spectrum
I included the spectrum to demonstrate that the cycle lasting 235 weeks is clearly the most prominent one based on the spectral analysis. There are no other peaks of similar amplitude, and this peak exhibits a distinct separation on both sides, meeting the criteria for a valid cycle peak.
The outlook of this cycle for the silver miners is now positive into 2024 and even 2025.
» Copper Miners
The composite spectrum for Copper mining is distinctive because it incorporates a more intricate cyclic model. The inclusion of four cycles is primarily driven by harmonic relations, with dominant cycles at 182 and 261 weeks. The 89-week cycle exhibits harmonic relationships by the factor of two and three, while the 131-week cycle relates harmonically to its larger 261-week parent cycle. This composite aims to capture pure harmonic relations rather than merely fitting curves, resulting in an aesthetically pleasing rhythm that accurately tracks the period from 2010 to present day.
Metal Miners - summary
Notably, all three metal assets demonstrate a fundamental long-term cycle of about 250 weeks, which is further supported by incorporating specific cycles based on their harmonic relationships. The upcoming rise in this extended long-term cycle appears to be imminent for 2024.
Now that we have a good understanding of the long-term cycles, our next task is to search for attractive opportunities. I will share two concepts related to short-term daily cycle analysis and highlight two specific mining stocks in the following section. The subsequent part will cover short-term cycle configurations within this framework, along with accompanying cycle workbooks and supplementary audio commentary.
Here is my personal comment, as cycle analysis often provides early insight into potential developments. On the flip-side, we might act too early based on these insights into the future. However, my key learning is:
It's always wiser to be a month ahead rather than a day late. You live a lot longer if you are to early than if you are too late in your investment criteria.
Single stock short term cycle analysis - 2 Ideas
Based on extended cycles, offering a favorable perspective for these miners, we can analyze and seek to identify compelling short-term (daily) cycle configurations.
The opinions and statements contained herein are the sole opinion of the author and are subject to change without notice. It may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information.
Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable. They are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the events that will occur.
Investments should be made only after consulting with your financial advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company or companies in question.
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