Markets between shock, rotation and late-cycle signals
Global Dominant Cycle Watch | March 09
US equity markets continue to trade on extremely fragile footing. Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, historic swings in oil prices and inconsistent political messaging from Washington have driven sharp overnight sell-offs followed by equally sharp intraday rebounds.
Despite deep overnight losses in S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures, Wall Street once again opened well above the lows. This pattern of violent shocks followed by fast counter-moves remains a defining feature of the current market regime.
Volatility remains elevated even as the VIX temporarily retreated intraday. Markets are reacting hypersensitively to every new headline from the White House or the Middle East, with sentiment flipping between fear and hope within hours.
Sector-wise, we observed a clear rotation. Semiconductors and memory stocks rebounded strongly after recent underperformance, supported by positive commentary and upgraded forecasts. In contrast, parts of the software sector and other recent outperformers saw profit-taking.
Oil markets remain the epicenter of instability. WTI surged close to USD 120 before collapsing below USD 90 within 24 hours. This extreme range underlines how politically driven and fragile current price discovery has become, with direct spillovers into bonds, equities and volatility.
Global Cycle Analysis – Focus on Dominant Turning Points
Our daily cycle framework filters approximately 60 international core assets, including global equity indices and futures contracts. Each asset is evaluated through a proprietary cycle model to identify potential cyclical highs or lows.
Ratings above +6 or below –6 flag assets with an elevated probability of a meaningful cyclical turning point. Below we summarize the most relevant signals, ranked by priority.
