Gold builds its floor on seven cycles
While the long yields show their first signs of tiring
Gold builds its floor on seven cycles while the long yields show their first signs of tiring
Yesterday the S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,533 and the Nasdaq dropped 1.47%, but the damage was narrower than the headline suggests. The equal-weight S&P gained about 1%, carried by regional banks, insurance, real estate, healthcare, retail, and energy, as money rotated out of the AI complex and into value and cyclical groups. The driver was the deteriorating AI narrative, from missing free cash flow at the hyperscalers to fresh worries about data-center overcapacity, with TSMC’s solid-but-not-enough report the latest disappointment. Iran stayed in the headlines but was not the force behind the tape. Brent slipped 0.70% to about $84.35, Treasury yields edged slightly higher, and the metals had a rough session, gold down 2% and silver off 3.65%.
The cycle model reads the day differently than the tape traded it. The strongest reading on the board is gold, where the cycle score climbs to +93, a high level of agreement on a possible turn up, now resting on seven converging cycles (several market rhythms that agree and pull in the same direction), the deepest stack in the table. At the same time the 10-year and 20-year yields both reach -93 with bull fatigue (the bulls are losing interest, the upward move is getting tired), the first momentum signals on the yield side in this sequence. The bond ETF TLT mirrors that from below with a +87 floor reading. Yesterday’s price action ran against both signals, which is exactly what makes them worth watching.
The cycle model analyzes roughly 45 global markets across equities, rates, commodities, and currencies. The Consensus Score runs from -100 to +100 and works like a school grade for how strongly the cycles agree that a turn is approaching, positive for a possible turn up and negative for a possible turn down. A reading at or beyond 60 marks the critical zone (a reading at which the cycle model raises the alarm for a possible turn). Let’s take a closer look.
