Global Cycles Watch: The dollar and both ends of the yield curve line up one step from a turn just as the Fed decides

Chart of the Day: Uranium | 29 July 2026

Tuesday extended the rotation. The S&P 500 gained 0.22% while the Nasdaq slipped 0.22%, and the strength sat everywhere else, with the Dow climbing 1.03%, the equal-weight S&P jumping 1.14% and the Russell 2000 adding 0.19%. Brent slumped 5.2% lower to around $83.75 on further signs of diplomatic progress in the Middle East, gold fell 1.2%, silver dropped 1.95%, and Bitcoin sank 1.85% to about $63,700.

The selling in chips and AI infrastructure continued through the morning before easing into the afternoon, and the money leaving that corner rotates into software and the non-tech sectors, which is exactly what the equal-weight strength shows. Earnings season remains strong against a high bar, and the week’s heaviest reports are still ahead, with Meta, Microsoft and Qualcomm after Wednesday’s close and Apple and Amazon on Thursday. Above all of it sits the Fed decision on Wednesday afternoon, with the market giving roughly a one-in-three chance to a hike.

For our cycle work, the timing is the story. Five rates-and-currency instruments, the dollar index, both Treasury yields, the long bond and the euro, have moved into the model’s deepest late-stage readings simultaneously on the very day the Fed decides, and yields already slipped on Tuesday in the direction the model has been projecting.

Each day we filter roughly 45 global markets (equity indices and sectors, metals, energy, agriculture, crypto, FX, and rates) through our cycle consensus engine. The key reading is the Consensus Score, which ranges from -100 to +100 and measures how strongly the dominant cycles of a market agree on a potential turning point. Values at or beyond ±60 mark the critical zone, the range where the cycle model raises the alarm for a possible turn and a market earns a place in the tables below. Let’s take a closer look.