Equity cycles deepen as oil holds its topping zone
Global Dominant Cycle Watch — April 1, 2026
Cycle analysis daily, April 1, 2026: equity cycles deepen as oil holds its topping zone
US equities surged on Tuesday as deescalation signals from the Middle East intensified. The S&P 500 gained 185 points (2.91%) to close near 6,528, the Nasdaq jumped 3.83%, the Dow added 1,125 points, and the Russell 2000 rallied 3.41%. The catalyst was a WSJ report indicating Trump is prepared to exit the conflict without militarily reopening Hormuz, implying a significant reduction in the odds of a large-scale ground campaign. Trump confirmed the report in a social media post Tuesday morning and reiterated that negotiations with Iran are progressing. Iran, for its part, acknowledged that communications are taking place between both sides, and Iran’s president stated the country is ready to end the war. Brent fell 2.7% to approximately $104.50 on the deescalation read. Our cycle model, which has been flagging oil as a topping candidate for several sessions, is watching whether this price decline confirms the cyclical alert that has been in place since last week.
Gold climbed 3.85% and silver advanced 7.35%, a divergence from the risk-on backdrop that is worth noting from a cycle perspective — precious metals strength alongside equity strength is atypical, and the troughing dashboard is now showing broadening exhaustion signals across equity indices. The Hang Seng Index deepened its troughing reading from Monday and leads the bottoming dashboard today. The Nasdaq 100 and Uranium are new entries at the critical threshold. M&A activity provided additional support to sentiment, with approximately $90B in deals announced this week including McCormick-Unilever, Biogen-Apellis, and Eli Lilly-Centessa. Eurozone CPI came in cooler than expected at 2.5% vs. 2.6% forecast, while US home price data showed further cooling, reinforcing the domestic disinflation theme. The yield curve saw modest gains, with yields falling 3-7bp.
The following cycle analysis filters approximately 60 international core assets, including major global indices and futures contracts. Each asset is subjected to a daily cycle model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The embedded Rating is the key indicator. Values above +7 or below -7 mark potential candidates for cyclical turning points and are therefore prioritized. Where an asset also appeared in yesterday’s dashboard, the comparison is noted inline.
