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Cycles today: A gallery of charts on U.S. equity markets

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Cycles today: A gallery of charts on U.S. equity markets

It is time. Different perspectives, same story.

Lars von Thienen
Jun 22, 2023
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Cycles today: A gallery of charts on U.S. equity markets

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A gallery of cyclic price series analysis for the U.S. equity markets.

A story told from different views with the same summary.


I expected the last daily up cycle for U.S. equities from January to end in March/April of this year. If you have been following my previous analyses of U.S. equity markets, you know I was wrong. I still have no idea why. I will come back to the reasons for this when I understand the fundamental error. For now the picture seems to be getting clearer.

Beyond Stock Market Cycles is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Check audio version at the bottom of this article. First the charts.

The advanced reader and follower can digest these charts to draw their own conclusions about how to play this game safely. Game on.

Regards,
Lars


(1) S&P 500 EW index in Euro vs. European 600 index

This analysis reflects the trending and cyclic behavior between the U.S. major basket and the European basket. The uptrend indicating the premium paid for U.S. compared to Europe has come to an end (or end of the extreme). A larger cycle seems to have ended for the U.S. vs. Europe. We are touching and trying to get back into the old channel. Important resistant - maybe U.S. premium uptrend will not continue.

S&P EW in Euro vs. Stoxx 600 (21. June 2023)


(2) Russell 2000 priced in gold with dominant cycle tuned RSI (daily)

Broader market valued in gold instead of the U.S. dollar. Continuous downtrend and now approaching the next extreme cyclic price movement to the upside. Correction expected.

Cyclic-tuned RSI Russell 2000 priced in Gold (21. June 2023)


(3) Apple stock price daily - with dominant time cycle and FLD price target projection

Apple stock price has always been a great proxy for cycles analysis on the daily timeframe for the tech sector. The updated cycles analysis shows synchronization between the time-based cycle topping projection (170d cycle) and the future line of demarcation (FLD) price, projection around 182 reached. An alignment of time and price cycles.

Apple daily price chart - time cycle top and FLD price target reached (21. June 2023)


(4) Daily S&P 500 daily time-cycles in alignment with cyclic overbought price indicator

Daily cycles analysis for the S&P 500 in general was tough from February to June this year. Today’s analysis reveals these two key cycles shown as composite. I highlighted the points in time when these cycles have been in alignment with major extreme signals from the cyclic-tuned RSI. These alignments indicated key tops in the past.

SP500 daily with time-cycles and price extremes alignment (21. June 2023)


Thank you for reading Beyond Stock Market Cycles. If you like these charts, feel free to share.

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» Audio version «

Audio: A gallery of cyclic price series analysis for the US equity markets

Lars von Thienen
·
Jun 22
Audio: A gallery of cyclic price series analysis for the US equity markets

Listen now (22 min) | This is the audio podcast version with my personal commentary on each chart for professional followers. (22min. total) The public “charts only” version is also available: Dear readers, I had expected the last daily up cycle for US equities from January to end in March/April this year. I was wrong. I still have no idea why. I will come back to the reasons …

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Cycles today: A gallery of charts on U.S. equity markets

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George M
Jul 5

Lars, just fyi, Larry Williams has been bullish on the stock market in 2023. He uses cycle analysis also and thinks we will be in a bull market until 2026. He shows a 10 year projection here https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1030245576207519764/1065118875462672394/image.png

and monthly cycle projection here https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1030245576207519764/1065118361844985906/Cycle_2023_41_Mo.JPG He also did a recent youtube video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmqWrOxRg7g go to 13min 30 sec to go to the cycle analysis

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Bataille
Writes Business Cycle driven Macro Por…
Jun 29

Great work. In your cRSI v2 - we enter the dominant cycle length - can you confirm the script divides the modal by 2 ( cyclelen= domcycle/2 ) ?

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