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Cycles today: A gallery of charts on U.S. equity markets
It is time. Different perspectives, same story.
A gallery of cyclic price series analysis for the U.S. equity markets.
A story told from different views with the same summary.
I expected the last daily up cycle for U.S. equities from January to end in March/April of this year. If you have been following my previous analyses of U.S. equity markets, you know I was wrong. I still have no idea why. I will come back to the reasons for this when I understand the fundamental error. For now the picture seems to be getting clearer.
Check audio version at the bottom of this article. First the charts.
The advanced reader and follower can digest these charts to draw their own conclusions about how to play this game safely. Game on.
Regards,
Lars
(1) S&P 500 EW index in Euro vs. European 600 index
This analysis reflects the trending and cyclic behavior between the U.S. major basket and the European basket. The uptrend indicating the premium paid for U.S. compared to Europe has come to an end (or end of the extreme). A larger cycle seems to have ended for the U.S. vs. Europe. We are touching and trying to get back into the old channel. Important resistant - maybe U.S. premium uptrend will not continue.
(2) Russell 2000 priced in gold with dominant cycle tuned RSI (daily)
Broader market valued in gold instead of the U.S. dollar. Continuous downtrend and now approaching the next extreme cyclic price movement to the upside. Correction expected.
(3) Apple stock price daily - with dominant time cycle and FLD price target projection
Apple stock price has always been a great proxy for cycles analysis on the daily timeframe for the tech sector. The updated cycles analysis shows synchronization between the time-based cycle topping projection (170d cycle) and the future line of demarcation (FLD) price, projection around 182 reached. An alignment of time and price cycles.
(4) Daily S&P 500 daily time-cycles in alignment with cyclic overbought price indicator
Daily cycles analysis for the S&P 500 in general was tough from February to June this year. Today’s analysis reveals these two key cycles shown as composite. I highlighted the points in time when these cycles have been in alignment with major extreme signals from the cyclic-tuned RSI. These alignments indicated key tops in the past.
» Audio version «
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Cycles today: A gallery of charts on U.S. equity markets
Lars, just fyi, Larry Williams has been bullish on the stock market in 2023. He uses cycle analysis also and thinks we will be in a bull market until 2026. He shows a 10 year projection here https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1030245576207519764/1065118875462672394/image.png
and monthly cycle projection here https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1030245576207519764/1065118361844985906/Cycle_2023_41_Mo.JPG He also did a recent youtube video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmqWrOxRg7g go to 13min 30 sec to go to the cycle analysis
Great work. In your cRSI v2 - we enter the dominant cycle length - can you confirm the script divides the modal by 2 ( cyclelen= domcycle/2 ) ?