Commodity topping cluster locks in five-for-five as Nat Gas momentum recedes
Global Dominant Cycle Watch — April 25, 2026
Commodity topping cluster locks in five-for-five as Nat Gas momentum recedes — April 25, 2026
Friday’s session ended with the headline indices firmer on solid earnings and Iran-deal optimism, but the underlying breadth was thin. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both traded well, while the equal-weight S&P and the Dow lagged — the gains were concentrated in technology and specifically in semiconductors. Outside of chips, the picture was less constructive: financials, healthcare, energy, capital goods, and housing all lagged. The Iran story remained the macro driver, with Witkoff and Kushner heading to Islamabad on Saturday to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi — talks that could accelerate an agreement if Vance and Ghalibaf join. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was extended for three weeks, removing one near-term tail risk. Brent crude held near recent levels and the dollar firmed marginally. Silver remains under cyclical pressure — our model has flagged the long-cycle topping condition for several sessions, and the Friday session did nothing to alter it.
The earnings backdrop is the more durable story. Intel’s release was the largest single positive of the morning. Semiconductor strength continued to broaden. The week ahead is heavy: BOJ Monday night, FOMC Wednesday afternoon, ECB and BOE Thursday morning, and mega-cap tech earnings dominating the back half (AMZN, GOOGL, META, and MSFT after the close on Wednesday; AAPL on Thursday). Our cycle model continues to flag Nvidia in the critical bottoming zone at +71 across three converging cycles, a position consistent with the broader semiconductor strength on display this week.
Our daily cycle analysis filters approximately 45 international core assets through the CycleConsensus model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The score ranges from -100 (extreme bearish) to +100 (extreme bullish). Assets at or beyond ±60 are in the critical zone where the conditions for a cyclical turn are statistically elevated. The cRSI column adds a momentum confirmation layer. Let’s take a closer look.
