Bulls & bears hit the maximum - Gold & Semis
Global Dominant Cycle Watch — May 13, 2026
Bulls & bears hit the maximum: Gold Mining ETF at +100 and PHLX Semis at -100 with full cRSI exit confirmation — May 13, 2026
Wednesday’s pre-market tape opened mixed but tilted heavily into tech. S&P futures gained 0.21%, the Dow eased 0.22%, the Nasdaq rallied 0.72%, and the Russell 2000 advanced 0.24%. The chip complex carried the early bid, driven by the last-minute addition of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to Trump’s China trip — investors hope the accompanying schedule could deliver an H200 breakthrough. European indices traded up 45-55bp with basic resources, tech, insurance, telecom, energy, and utilities leading. Asia was mixed. Brent crude eased 0.15% to roughly $107.60 after a Friday-through-Tuesday spike. The cycle table this morning is reading directly against this morning’s chip enthusiasm — the PHLX Semiconductor Index sits at the maximum possible -100 with a bull exit cRSI, the strongest possible single configuration on the topping side. On the other end, Gold Mining ETF (GDX) sits at the maximum +100 with bear exit. Both maximums are present in the same scan, both with full cRSI exit confirmation.
The macro backdrop continues to frame the rotation. The IEA’s monthly report describes “an unprecedented supply shock” with cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers already exceeding one billion barrels and more than 14 mb/d of oil shut in. Global oil demand is now expected to contract year-over-year in Q2 and decline for the year as a whole. April 2026 was the first month since April 2023 that inflation rose by more than average hourly earnings — a stagflationary read that puts real wages under pressure. Construction projects worldwide are stalling due to Middle East-driven supply-chain snarls.
Our cycle model is reading the configuration plainly: the Russell 2000 enters the topping table for the first time at -90 with bull fatigue, the 2y US Treasury Yield deepens to -76 with bull exit (the strongest cRSI state), and the chip topping signal stands at the absolute ceiling alongside an equally absolute reading on gold miners.
Our daily cycle analysis filters approximately 45 international core assets through the CycleConsensus model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The score ranges from -100 (extreme bearish) to +100 (extreme bullish). Assets at or beyond ±60 are in the critical zone where the conditions for a cyclical turn are statistically elevated. The cRSI column adds a momentum confirmation layer. Let’s take a closer look.
