S&P 500 Energy Cycle Reaches Maximum Score as Oil Spikes to $111 — 13 Assets in the Bottoming Zone, Good Friday April 3, 2026

US markets are closed today for Good Friday. Thursday’s session — the last of a holiday-shortened week — opened sharply lower, with the Dow down more than 600 points at the open, before a late-session rally erased most of those losses. The S&P 500 finished at 6,582.69 (+0.11%), the Nasdaq Composite at 21,879.18 (+0.18%), and the Dow at 46,504.67 (-0.13%). For the week, major indices posted their first winning stretch since the start of the Iran conflict: the S&P 500 gained 3.4%, the Nasdaq surged 4.4%, and the Dow added 3%. The dominant driver was oil: WTI crude settled above $111 per barrel on Thursday, its sharpest single-session surge in weeks, as Middle East tensions re-escalated after earlier signals of a potential wind-down. Tesla fell more than 5% on disappointing quarterly delivery numbers. Energy stocks rose alongside crude.

The weekly rally is technically notable but lacks cross-market confirmation. Ten-year US Treasury yields remain near 4.34%, signaling that bond markets are not pricing in a rapid geopolitical resolution. The rally unfolds ahead of a long Easter weekend, when reduced liquidity and pre-holiday positioning amplify the risk of reversals. The cycle model’s read on this environment is unambiguous in one direction: the S&P 500 Energy sector has escalated to a Cycle Consensus Score of -100, now registering bull exit — the maximum topping signal the model can produce, and an upgrade from -93 bull fatigue on Wednesday. Oil Futures remain at -87 with bull exhaustion on four converging cycles. The price spike to $111 is arriving precisely at the point the cycle model has flagged as maximum exhaustion of the bullish trend. On the bottoming side, thirteen assets are now in the critical zone, up from twelve on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and PHLX Semiconductor joining as new entries and Wilshire 5000 and BRICS upgrading their cRSI signals to bear exit.

The cycle model filters approximately 45 international core assets for statistically relevant cyclical turning points. The Cycle Consensus Score ranges from -100 (maximum bearish alignment) to +100 (maximum bullish alignment). Assets at or beyond ±60 are in the critical zone where cyclical conditions for a trend change are statistically elevated. The cRSI column tracks trend momentum exhaustion across three stages: Exhaustion (maximum overextension, early warning), Fatigue (beginning reversal), and Exit (confirmed momentum reversal).

Bottoming Cycles

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S&P 500 extends gains for a second session as Iran wind-down signals pull oil toward $100, April 2, 2026

Wednesday’s session added to Tuesday’s powerful rebound in a more measured follow-through. The S&P 500 gained +0.72%, the Nasdaq Composite added +1.16%, and the Dow climbed +0.48%, extending the two-day recovery from deeply oversold conditions. The catalysts remained the same: further signals from both Washington and Tehran that US military involvement in Iran is approaching an end. Trump indicated publicly that US engagement could wind down within two to three weeks, and Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that Iran has “the necessary will to end this war.” A Politico report late in the session added that Trump’s 9 p.m. ET national address would formally declare a wind-down, with control over the Strait of Hormuz to be left to other nations. Oil fell sharply in response: Brent crude shed approximately 3% to settle just above $100 per barrel, and WTI settled just below $100. Technology and semiconductors led the advance. Consumer discretionary, luxury, and energy saw profit-taking, with the energy sector underperforming in a pattern that has now extended across two consecutive sessions despite still-elevated crude prices.

The market’s recovery is unfolding against a backdrop of institutional caution. The 200-day moving average in the S&P 500 remains far overhead, and the bounce is technically classified as a counter-trend rally rather than confirmation of a new uptrend. The cycle model is consistent with this framing: the bottoming signals that were already in place before Tuesday’s session have not changed in direction, but they describe cyclical conditions for a low approaching rather than a confirmed reversal. Twelve assets now sit in the critical zone on the bullish side of the dashboard, up from five at the prior close. On the bearish side, two consecutive sessions of oil price confirmation are accumulating against a topping signal that was in place before either decline occurred. The energy sector’s underperformance on both days is consistent with what the cycle model has been showing: S&P 500 Energy entered the topping table at -93, equal to the US Dollar Index reading, and price has moved in the expected direction in each subsequent session. The dollar’s continued weakening adds to a picture where the cycle model’s lead time is visible in real-time.

The daily cycle analysis filters approximately 45 international core assets — including major global indices, futures contracts, ETFs, and crypto — through the CycleConsensus model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The Score ranges from -100 (extreme bearish) to +100 (extreme bullish). Assets at or beyond ±60 are in the critical zone where the cyclical conditions for a turning point are statistically elevated. The cRSI column adds a momentum confirmation layer. Let’s take a closer look.

Bottoming cycles

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Cycle analysis daily, April 1, 2026: equity cycles deepen as oil holds its topping zone

US equities surged on Tuesday as deescalation signals from the Middle East intensified. The S&P 500 gained 185 points (2.91%) to close near 6,528, the Nasdaq jumped 3.83%, the Dow added 1,125 points, and the Russell 2000 rallied 3.41%. The catalyst was a WSJ report indicating Trump is prepared to exit the conflict without militarily reopening Hormuz, implying a significant reduction in the odds of a large-scale ground campaign. Trump confirmed the report in a social media post Tuesday morning and reiterated that negotiations with Iran are progressing. Iran, for its part, acknowledged that communications are taking place between both sides, and Iran’s president stated the country is ready to end the war. Brent fell 2.7% to approximately $104.50 on the deescalation read. Our cycle model, which has been flagging oil as a topping candidate for several sessions, is watching whether this price decline confirms the cyclical alert that has been in place since last week.

Gold climbed 3.85% and silver advanced 7.35%, a divergence from the risk-on backdrop that is worth noting from a cycle perspective — precious metals strength alongside equity strength is atypical, and the troughing dashboard is now showing broadening exhaustion signals across equity indices. The Hang Seng Index deepened its troughing reading from Monday and leads the bottoming dashboard today. The Nasdaq 100 and Uranium are new entries at the critical threshold. M&A activity provided additional support to sentiment, with approximately $90B in deals announced this week including McCormick-Unilever, Biogen-Apellis, and Eli Lilly-Centessa. Eurozone CPI came in cooler than expected at 2.5% vs. 2.6% forecast, while US home price data showed further cooling, reinforcing the domestic disinflation theme. The yield curve saw modest gains, with yields falling 3-7bp.

The following cycle analysis filters approximately 60 international core assets, including major global indices and futures contracts. Each asset is subjected to a daily cycle model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The embedded Rating is the key indicator. Values above +7 or below -7 mark potential candidates for cyclical turning points and are therefore prioritized. Where an asset also appeared in yesterday’s dashboard, the comparison is noted inline.

Bottoming cycles

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Cycle analysis daily, March 31, 2026: oil pushes to +8 as agriculture joins the topping queue

US equities faded after an early bounce on Monday. The S&P 500 lost 25 points (0.39%) to 6,343, the Nasdaq dropped 153 points (0.73%), and the Russell 2000 fell 1.46%. The Dow eked out a small gain of 50 points. Investors once again dismissed the White House’s optimistic framing of negotiations with Iran. The gap between the administration’s rhetoric and actual developments on the ground remains wide: fighting continues unabated, Iran struck critical economic infrastructure over the weekend (including aluminum facilities and a desalination plant in Kuwait), and the Houthis formally entered the war by firing missiles at Israel. Until a senior US official gets on a plane to meet Iranian counterparts, or until Iran’s own commentary turns more constructive, markets are likely to keep fading the happy talk. Our cycle model, meanwhile, is now registering the highest topping reading for oil in several weeks.

Brent rose 1.1% to approximately $113.85 after touching $117 overnight. Gold added 0.5% and silver gained 0.6%. Treasuries rallied with yields falling 7-9bp across the curve, as the market swung from pricing 10bp of Fed hikes to 5bp of cuts. The dollar rose 0.4% broadly but fell against the yen after forceful rhetoric from Japanese officials. Germany’s March CPI accelerated 80bp to 2.8%, a sign that the stagflationary impulse from the Middle East conflict is now washing through the European economy. Tech continued to trade poorly for reasons largely independent of geopolitics, with chips and capital goods among the hardest hit groups. On the constructive side, insurance, healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities outperformed, and it is worth noting that several of these defensive and cyclical names are starting to appear on our bottoming cycles dashboard. The German DAX, in particular, has pushed into the critical zone on the troughing side despite the negative CPI print.

The following cycle analysis filters approximately 60 international core assets, including major global indices and futures contracts. Each asset is subjected to a daily cycle model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The embedded Rating is the key indicator. Values above +7 or below -7 mark potential candidates for cyclical turning points and are therefore prioritized.

Bottoming cycles

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US equities sold off broadly on Friday. The S&P 500 dropped 108 points (1.67%) to 5,568, the Dow fell 792 points (1.72%), the Nasdaq lost 460 points (2.15%), and the Russell 2000 slumped 1.75%. The Middle East conflict remains the dominant driver. A second Trump deadline deferral on Iran (now pushed to April 6) did little to calm markets. The Pentagon is reportedly considering 10,000 additional troops for the region, Israel announced an expansion of its campaign on Friday morning, and peace negotiations appear to have stalled. The base case across markets remains that further escalation is more likely than de-escalation. The stagflationary hit to the US economy could last months. However, our cycle models are now picking up early signs that this pressure may be approaching an inflection point, particularly in the energy complex where oil is showing one of the strongest topping signals we have seen in weeks.

Brent crude surged over 5% to approximately $113.80, recovering all of Monday’s 11% decline and finishing the week up roughly $1.60. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and threats to close Bab el-Mandeb continue to support prices. The question from a cyclical perspective is whether this rally still has room to run, or whether it is nearing exhaustion. The cycle data below will show where we stand on that. Treasuries diverged: 2-year yields fell 8bp on safety demand while 10-year and 30-year yields rose 2bp and 5bp respectively, as inflation expectations moved higher. The market is now pricing in approximately 6bp of Fed hikes for the year. Fed official Roberto Perli warned that the pace of government bond purchases would slow after mid-April, while Fed governor Miran suggested the central bank’s balance sheet could shrink by up to $2 trillion without material market disruption. Gold rose 3.25% and silver 2.80%, and it is worth noting that precious metals and miners are also starting to show cyclical bottoming signals. In tech, the selling continued largely independent of geopolitics: software names faced another round of AI disruption-related pressure, and the sector is still dealing with a streamlined OpenAI, a large IPO pipeline, and concerns about legacy software displacement. Carnival was forced to cut its full-year guidance as surging fuel costs offset what would otherwise have been a solid quarter. On the other side, financials were among the hardest hit sectors on Friday (BAC, C, JPM, MS all down sharply), yet our cycle model places them near a potential cyclical low.

The following cycle analysis filters approximately 60 international core assets, including major global indices and futures contracts. Each asset is subjected to a daily cycle model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The embedded Rating is the key indicator. Values above +7 or below -7 mark potential candidates for cyclical turning points and are therefore prioritized. Today’s dashboards show several assets at or near these thresholds. Let’s take a closer look.

Bottoming cycles

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Wall Street experienced a clear risk‑off session. Despite strong corporate earnings, markets closed near their daily lows, signaling active risk reduction rather than simple profit‑taking. Persistent inflation pressures, rising bond yields, geopolitical escalation, and a Federal Reserve firmly in wait‑and‑see mode continue to dominate investor positioning.

The Dow Jones fell roughly 1.6% to a new yearly low. The S&P 500 slipped below its closely watched 200‑day moving average, a technically relevant warning signal. The Nasdaq also weakened, with technology stocks no longer serving as a safe haven.

Micron delivered outstanding results across revenue, earnings, and margins, raised guidance significantly, and increased its dividend by 30%. Yet the stock failed to hold early gains, reinforcing the current pattern: good news is sold in an environment where expectations are already elevated.

Oil prices remained the dominant macro driver. Brent temporarily moved above USD 108, while WTI approached the USD 100 mark amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. At these levels, oil acts as a broad tax on the global economy rather than a sector‑specific issue.

The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged as expected, but the tone remained cautious. Inflation is easing from its peaks but remains too high, particularly due to energy prices and tariffs. The Fed now signals only one rate cut for the year, reinforcing the “higher for longer” narrative.

Global Time Cycles – Core Focus

The following cycle analysis filters approximately 60 international core assets, including major global indices and futures contracts. Each asset is subjected to a daily cycle model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases.

The embedded Rating is the key indicator. Values above +6 or below -6 mark potential candidates for meaningful cyclical turning points and are therefore prioritized.

Cyclical Top Formation

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This article is based on a YouTube live episode of FSC Cycles TV featuring
Lars von Thienen and Tom McClellan from March 16. 2026.

Most investors spend their days parsing earnings reports, tracking Federal Reserve minutes, and watching employment data tick by tick. Very few think to look 93 million miles away — at the sun — for clues about where the economy is heading next. But perhaps they should.

In a recent episode of Cycles TV, hosted by Lars von Thienen of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, market analyst Tom McClellan presented a compelling body of research connecting the roughly 11-year sunspot cycle to Treasury yield spreads, unemployment rates, hurricane frequency, and episodes of social upheaval. The correlations are striking, the methodology is transparent, and the forward-looking implications deserve serious attention from anyone making investment decisions in the years ahead.

This article unpacks the key findings from that conversation, explains the analytical framework behind them, and examines what the data suggest about the economic and geopolitical landscape through 2027 and beyond.

A Quick Primer on the Solar Cycle

The sun is not a static furnace. Its energy output oscillates on a cycle that averages roughly 11 years, though individual cycles can range from about 8 to 14 years. The most accessible measure of this variability is the sunspot count — a record that stretches all the way back to 1749, when an early astronomer first began systematically logging the dark spots visible on the solar disk through a filtered telescope.

During the active phase of the cycle, sunspot counts soar, solar flares intensify, and the sun’s electromagnetic output increases markedly. During the quiet phase, the sun settles into a calmer state with minimal surface activity. Modern solar scientists have far more sophisticated instruments at their disposal — X-ray measurements, coronal mass ejection tracking, and detailed magnetic field mapping — but the sunspot count remains the longest continuous dataset we have, and it serves as a practical proxy for the sun’s overall activity level.

The current solar cycle #25 peaked in October 2024. Sunspot counts are now declining, which places us in the early stages of the descending phase — a position with meaningful implications for the topics discussed below.

The Yield Curve and the Three-Year Lag

McClellan’s central observation involves the spread between the 10-year and 1-year U.S. Treasury note yields — a standard measure of the yield curve’s steepness. When this spread is high, long-term rates far exceed short-term rates, typically reflecting a period when the Federal Reserve has cut rates in response to economic weakness. When the spread inverts (goes below zero), short-term rates exceed long-term rates, usually because the Fed is tightening to combat inflation.

What makes the analysis remarkable is the overlay: when you shift the sunspot count forward by approximately three years and plot it against the yield spread, the two series track each other with surprising fidelity. Sunspot peaks, lagged by three years, correspond to peaks in the yield spread. Sunspot troughs correspond to yield spread troughs.

The three-year lag is a critical detail. McClellan did not arrive at it by assumption — he tested multiple lag periods and found that roughly three years (with some natural variation around 2.8 to 3.2 years) produced the most consistent alignment. The fact that this is a leading relationship adds weight to the argument: it is difficult to argue that the yield curve is causing sunspot activity. The more natural interpretation is that the sun’s output is, through some mechanism, influencing economic conditions on a delayed basis.

There are, of course, exceptions. The Arab oil embargo of the mid-1970s, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (exacerbated by the Fed keeping rates artificially low for too long under Greenspan), and the COVID-19 pandemic all disrupted the otherwise smooth correlation. But here is the telling part: after each of these exogenous shocks passed, the relationship reasserted itself. The natural rhythm returned.

Right now, the yield curve is steepening — short-term rates are falling while long-term rates hold elevated — which aligns precisely with what the three-year-lagged sunspot model predicts. If the model holds, this steepening trend should continue toward a peak around 2027, roughly three years after the 2024 sunspot maximum.

Unemployment Follows the Same Rhythm

McClellan extended the same analytical framework to the U.S. unemployment rate, and the results are equally compelling. Using the identical three-year forward shift of sunspot data, sunspot minimums align with unemployment minimums, and sunspot maximums align with unemployment maximums.

The logic chain is intuitive: as the economy weakens and unemployment rises, the Fed cuts rates, steepening the yield curve. Both phenomena — rising unemployment and a steeper yield curve — dance to the same solar drummer, just three years behind.

Again, the model is not perfect. The distortions introduced by Greenspan-era monetary policy, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID spike are visible in the data. But if you mentally set aside those singular events, the underlying rhythm is unmistakable.

The practical takeaway? Based on this framework, unemployment should continue rising through approximately August 2027 — three years after the 2024 sunspot peak — before beginning to decline. That timeline carries obvious political implications: the economic headwinds through 2026 and into early 2027 are likely to create a challenging environment, with recovery potentially becoming visible only as we approach 2028.

Digital Signal Processing Confirms the Pattern

One of the most valuable segments of the conversation involved Lars von Thienen applying digital signal processing (DSP) techniques to the yield spread data using the Foundation for the Study of Cycles’ proprietary cycle analysis tools.

When the raw 10-year minus 2-year spread data was fed into the cycle scanner, the dominant detected cycle came in at 105 months — approximately 8.75 years. That is on the lower end of the known solar cycle range, but not quite at the expected average of roughly 11 years.

This is where McClellan’s domain expertise proved essential. He pointed out that the three exogenous events (oil embargo, 2008 crisis, COVID) had skewed the data. Von Thienen then created a corrected dataset — a virtual time series with those event-driven distortions smoothed out. When this adjusted data was re-analyzed, the dominant cycle shifted to 124 months, or 10.3 years — almost exactly the average length of recent solar cycles.

This exercise illustrates a fundamental principle of cycle analysis: static, purely mathematical approaches have limitations. Real-world cycles are dynamic. They stretch, compress, and occasionally get overwhelmed by singular events. The analyst who combines computational tools with contextual understanding of the data will always outperform the one who relies on algorithms alone.

As McClellan put it, you take the hypothesis, push it, challenge it, tweak it, and press it until it reveals its secrets. That iterative process — moving between data-driven detection and judgment-informed correction — is the hallmark of serious cycle research.

Hurricanes and the Inverted Solar Signal

The financial markets are not the only domain where sunspot cycles leave their fingerprint. McClellan also presented data on global tropical cyclone frequency, drawing on work by meteorologist Ryan Maue, who compiled a three-year running sum of worldwide hurricane activity.

The relationship here is inverted: when sunspot counts are at their maximum, global hurricane frequency tends to be at its minimum. As sunspots decline, hurricane activity ramps up. The mechanism is not fully understood — it may involve how solar output modulates upper-atmosphere wind shear, sea surface temperatures, or other atmospheric dynamics — but the pattern in the data is clear.

Since we are now in a period of declining sunspot numbers heading toward the next solar minimum (expected around 2030), the implication is that global hurricane frequency should increase over the latter half of this decade. The quiet 2025 Atlantic season, with no hurricanes making U.S. landfall, may prove to be the calm before a more active period.

This is worth noting not as cause for alarm, but as context. Hurricane activity naturally oscillates on multi-year timescales, and understanding the solar connection helps place any single season — whether unusually quiet or unusually active — within a broader framework.

Social Unrest and the Ascending Phase

Perhaps the most provocative strand of McClellan’s research draws on work originally conducted over a century ago by Alexander Chizhevsky, a Russian scientist who studied the relationship between solar activity and episodes of social upheaval1.

Chizhevsky’s core finding was that the ascending phase of each sunspot cycle — the period when solar activity is ramping up toward its peak — tends to coincide with increased social unrest: revolutions, mass protests, political upheavals. The declining phase, conversely, tends to coincide with resolution and relative calm.

McClellan extended this analysis through the modern era, noting that the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Iranian Revolution of 1979, and the recent protest movements in Iran during 2022-2023 all occurred during ascending phases of their respective sunspot cycles.

There is a valid critique of this line of analysis: social unrest is not easily quantified, and if you look hard enough, you can find examples of upheaval at almost any point in history. McClellan acknowledged this limitation openly. The correlation is suggestive rather than definitive, and it relies more on narrative pattern-matching than on the kind of hard numerical analysis that characterizes the yield spread and unemployment work.

Still, the broader point has merit. If solar activity does influence human neurology in even subtle ways — and the physical mechanism is at least plausible, given the sun’s demonstrated ability to affect electromagnetic systems on Earth — then it would be surprising if that influence had no detectable effect on collective human behavior.

The current declining phase suggests a period of relative resolution rather than new eruptions of unrest. The next ascending phase, beginning in the early 2030s, would be the period to watch for the next wave of large-scale social movements.

What This Means for Investors in 2026 and Beyond

Drawing the threads together, here is the forward-looking picture that emerges from the sunspot framework:

The yield curve should continue steepening through approximately 2027, reflecting ongoing monetary easing and economic softness. The unemployment rate is expected to rise into mid-to-late 2027 before turning. This suggests that the recession many analysts have been debating may indeed materialize, or at the very least that economic growth will remain subdued for the next 12 to 18 months. Hurricane activity is likely to increase as we move deeper into the declining phase of the solar cycle, with implications for insurance markets, energy infrastructure, and coastal real estate. The current period favors resolution of social and geopolitical tensions rather than the eruption of new ones, though the early 2030s could see a reversal of that trend.

None of these projections should be treated as certainties. McClellan himself was emphatic on this point: cycles provide expectations, not guarantees. The analyst’s job does not end with generating a forecast — it continues with daily monitoring, validation, and willingness to adjust when the data diverge from the model.

The Case for Keeping an Open Mind

One of the recurring themes in the conversation was the resistance that this kind of cross-disciplinary analysis encounters. Astronomers study the sun. Economists study markets. The two communities rarely overlap, and each tends to view the other’s domain as irrelevant to their own. Climate scientists focus on atmospheric dynamics and resist the suggestion that their data might have financial applications. Market practitioners, in turn, dismiss anything that cannot be expressed in a Bloomberg terminal query.

McClellan has experienced this pushback firsthand and makes a pragmatic case for intellectual openness. We use gravity every day without fully understanding it. We flip light switches without knowing the physics of electron flow. Understanding why something works is fascinating and worth pursuing, but it is not a prerequisite for using the relationship. The human brain is, at a fundamental level, an electrochemical system — a bundle of wires, as McClellan put it. If a sufficiently powerful solar event like the 1859 Carrington Event can induce voltage surges on telegraph wires and fry electronics, it is not a large conceptual leap to consider that subtler variations in solar output might influence the electrical activity in the human nervous system, even if only at the margins.

The sunspot-to-yield-curve correlation, with its three-year lag, is not a magic formula. It broke down during the GFC. It broke down during COVID. But it has reasserted itself every time, and it is currently tracking well. For an investor, that represents useful information — one more input in the decision-making process, not a replacement for all other inputs, but a genuinely informative one.

It is also worth noting what this framework is not. It is not astrology. It is not planetary alignment mysticism. McClellan was explicit in distinguishing his solar-based research from the kind of horoscope-style market analysis that has long given technical analysis a bad name. His approach starts with data, tests for statistical relationships, applies time-shifting to optimize correlation, and then subjects the results to scrutiny — including the honest acknowledgment of where and why the model fails. That is the scientific method, applied to an unconventional dataset.

Looking Ahead - “Cycles in the City”

The Foundation for the Study of Cycles continues to explore these relationships through both traditional analysis and modern digital signal processing tools. The upcoming Cycles in the City conference in New York (late May 2026) will feature McClellan speaking on the physics of natural frequencies and their application to financial markets — a topic that bridges his background in aerospace engineering at West Point and his three decades of market analysis alongside his father, Sherman McClellan.

Register here: cycles.org/cycles-in-the-city/

For those interested in the intersection of natural science and market behavior, this is an area of research that rewards curiosity and punishes closed-mindedness. The sun has been cycling for billions of years. The data now stretches back nearly three centuries. The correlations are measurable, the framework is testable, and the implications are actionable.

As McClellan reminded us: you take the hypothesis, push it, challenge it, tweak it, and press it until it confesses all of its sins. That is how real discovery happens — not by clinging to a single model, but by iterating between expectation and confirmation, between the computational and the contextual, between what the data say and what the world actually does.

The only question is whether you are willing to look up.

All the best,
Lars von Thienen
Tom McClellan

The Foundation for the Study of Cycles conducts ongoing research into cyclical patterns across markets, natural systems, and human behavior. For more information, visit the Foundation’s website or subscribe to McClellan Financial Publications for regular market timing analysis.

About the authors

Tom McClellan is the editor of The McClellan Market Report and creator of the McClellan Oscillator, one of the most widely followed breadth indicators in technical analysis. His research spans market cycles, liquidity patterns, and intermarket relationships. Learn more at mcoscillator.com.

Lars von Thienen is a member of the Board of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and creator of the cycle analysis platform. He hosts Cycles TV, a series dedicated to exploring the role of natural and market cycles in financial decision-making. Learn more at cycles.org.

Disclaimer

Information contained on this site is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Lars von Thienen “lars.cycles.org” is a publisher of scientific cycle analysis results for global markets and is not an investment advisor. The published analysis is not designed to meet your personal circumstances – we are not financial advisors and do not give personalized financial advice. The opinions and statements contained herein are the sole opinion of the author and are subject to change without notice. It may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information.

Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable. They are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the events that will occur.

Investments should be made only after consulting with your financial advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company or companies in question. You shouldn’t make any decision based solely on what you read here.

Neither the publisher, the author nor any of its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein.

In this upcoming live episode of Cycles TV, Tom McClellan (McClellan Financial Publications, mcoscillator.com) joins Lars von Thienen for a deep dive into one of the most fascinating — and underappreciated — correlations in market research: the link between sunspot cycles and financial markets.

What You’ll Discover

Tom has spent decades analyzing market internals and breadth indicators. In this conversation, he brings 130 years of data to the table — and the patterns are hard to ignore. When you shift the sunspot count forward by just three years, it lines up with yield-curve inversions, unemployment surges, and some of the most dramatic turning points in modern economic history.

The discussion covers the sunspot-to-yield-curve lag and what it tells us about the direction of interest rates, the recurring alignment between solar maxima and spikes in unemployment going back to the Korean War, how the DJIA has behaved around sunspot peaks since 1890, the surprising correlation between solar activity and global hurricane frequency, and perhaps most provocatively — how over a century of social upheaval, from the Russian Revolution to the Arab Spring to the GameStop short squeeze, clusters around sunspot peaks.

Whether you’re a seasoned cycles analyst, a macro trader looking for an edge, or simply curious about the invisible forces that shape our world — this is a conversation you don’t want to miss.

Join Us Live — Ask Your Questions

This is a live stream. We’ll be taking questions from the audience in real time, so come prepared. Whether you want to dig deeper into the data, challenge the thesis, or ask about what the current sunspot cycle means for markets going forward — this is your chance to engage directly with Tom and Lars.

Date: March 16, 2026
Time: Berlin 18:00 | London 17:00 | New York 1pm | Los Angeles 10am
Where: YouTube Live — Cycles TV channel

Set your reminder now:

About the Guests

Tom McClellan is the editor of The McClellan Market Report and creator of the McClellan Oscillator, one of the most widely followed breadth indicators in technical analysis. His research spans market cycles, liquidity patterns, and intermarket relationships. Learn more at mcoscillator.com.

Lars von Thienen is a member of the Board of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and creator of the cycle analysis platform. He hosts Cycles TV, a series dedicated to exploring the role of natural and market cycles in financial decision-making. Learn more at cycles.org.

US equity markets continue to trade on extremely fragile footing. Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, historic swings in oil prices and inconsistent political messaging from Washington have driven sharp overnight sell-offs followed by equally sharp intraday rebounds.

Despite deep overnight losses in S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures, Wall Street once again opened well above the lows. This pattern of violent shocks followed by fast counter-moves remains a defining feature of the current market regime.

Volatility remains elevated even as the VIX temporarily retreated intraday. Markets are reacting hypersensitively to every new headline from the White House or the Middle East, with sentiment flipping between fear and hope within hours.

Sector-wise, we observed a clear rotation. Semiconductors and memory stocks rebounded strongly after recent underperformance, supported by positive commentary and upgraded forecasts. In contrast, parts of the software sector and other recent outperformers saw profit-taking.

Oil markets remain the epicenter of instability. WTI surged close to USD 120 before collapsing below USD 90 within 24 hours. This extreme range underlines how politically driven and fragile current price discovery has become, with direct spillovers into bonds, equities and volatility.

Global Cycle Analysis – Focus on Dominant Turning Points

Our daily cycle framework filters approximately 60 international core assets, including global equity indices and futures contracts. Each asset is evaluated through a proprietary cycle model to identify potential cyclical highs or lows.

Ratings above +6 or below –6 flag assets with an elevated probability of a meaningful cyclical turning point. Below we summarize the most relevant signals, ranked by priority.

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Global Dominant Cycle Watch – 14 February 2026

Wall Street Snapshot

In brief: Wall Street remains deeply fragmented. On the surface, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq appear relatively stable, but beneath the index level volatility is accelerating sharply. Single stocks are swinging by double digits in both directions, while index heavyweights continue to mask internal weakness.

US inflation data provided short‑term relief. Headline CPI eased to 2.4% year over year (from 2.7%), with a 0.2% monthly increase below expectations. Cooling rents and energy prices helped stabilize futures, though the effect remained largely superficial.

The tech sector is already experiencing a de facto bear market beneath the surface. Many stocks trade 30–50% below their highs, while a handful of mega caps keep the indices afloat. This divergence significantly increases systemic risk.

Earnings reactions remain erratic. Even solid results are often sold into, underscoring how nervous and short‑term oriented market participants have become.

Bond yields have declined, reflecting rising macro concerns and a cooling labor market. Crypto assets remain under pressure, and recent rebounds have so far failed to gain traction.

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Wall Street closed a volatile week shaped by opposing forces. After a brief rebound, U.S. equities remain under pressure on a weekly basis, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq heading for their third losing week out of four. Futures ended slightly lower into the close — a familiar pattern following short-lived relief rallies.

Risk appetite has returned selectively, but confidence remains fragile. Equities are stabilizing, yet gold and silver continue to surge simultaneously. This combination reflects a market still seeking returns while aggressively hedging tail risks.

On the corporate side, Intel dominated headlines. While earnings beat expectations and AI-driven data center demand remained strong, weaker revenue guidance due to supply constraints triggered a sharp post-market sell-off. After doubling over the past year, the stock experienced a classic sentiment reset.

Beyond equities, commodities stole the spotlight. Gold reached new all-time highs near $5,000, silver is effectively trading around $100, and energy markets showed extreme sensitivity to supply shocks, underscoring the elevated volatility regime across asset classes.

Global Time Cycle Analysis – Dominant Turning Points

The following section represents a filtered analysis of approximately 60 global core assets, including major international equity indices and futures markets. Each asset undergoes a daily time-cycle analysis designed to identify potential cyclical tops or bottoms.

Ratings above +6 or below –6 indicate assets that have entered statistically significant zones where cyclical turning points become increasingly likely. The lists below highlight the highest-priority candidates.

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Wall Street staged a clear rebound after the weakest session since October, shifting back into a risk‑on environment. The Dow Jones gained up to 650 points intraday, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq and small caps followed with broad participation. Notably, the S&P Small Cap 600 reached a new all‑time high, confirming improving market breadth.

The rally was driven less by resolution and more by de‑escalation. Political rhetoric eased, particularly around trade tensions and geopolitical risks, which was enough to trigger a relief rally. While losses from the prior session were not fully recovered, aggressive risk aversion has clearly receded.

On the equity side, semiconductors and selected biotech names led the rebound, while margin‑sensitive media stocks continued to struggle. Airlines surprised positively, underlining that parts of the real economy remain resilient despite elevated macro uncertainty.

Bond yields stabilized near 4.25% on the US 10‑year, the dollar found support, and gold pushed to new all‑time highs, driven by sustained central‑bank demand and growing skepticism toward US Treasuries. Oil remains in a multi‑week uptrend, while crypto markets continue to move sideways.

Overall sentiment has improved, but the market remains highly sensitive to political signals and positioning. Against this backdrop, cycle analysis becomes increasingly critical.

Global Cycle Analysis — Peaking & Troughing Assets

The following cycle framework analyzes approximately 60 international core assets, including global equity indices, sector benchmarks and futures markets. Each asset is subjected to a daily cycle analysis to identify where it stands within its dominant market cycle.

Assets with a Rating ≥ 6 indicate a potential cyclical top (peaking phase). Assets with a Rating ≤ –6 indicate a potential cyclical bottom (troughing phase). These thresholds define candidates for possible inflection points, not timing signals.

Assets in Cyclical Peaking Phase (Rating ≥ 6)

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I published this analysis in early 2025, already highlighting signs that the long-standing trend of the United States outperforming Europe was reaching its inflection point. With the change in presidency, that structural advantage appears to have decisively reversed, turning sharply downward in the aftermath of the 2024 election.

The long-term positive trend of the US against EU has reversed.

Global digital dominance and AI-Capex hype does not make up a good overall economy…

The data speaks for itself.

Here is the original chart from a year ago:

Regards,
Lars von Thienen

Current reference point: 01/21/2026 (small dot on the fuchsia composite cycle)
Next composite cycle turn: BOTTOM expected ~03/13/2026

Historical Alignment: Composite Cycle vs Price

Across the full analysis window (mid‑2021 to early‑2026), the fuchsia composite cycle turns have shown strong temporal alignment with price trend changes:

• Major TOP cycle turns (e.g., Sep‑2021, Dec‑2021, Nov‑2024, Dec‑2025, Jan‑2026) coincided closely with price exhaustion and subsequent pullbacks.

• Major BOTTOM cycle turns (e.g., Jun‑2022, Oct‑2023, Apr‑2025, Nov‑2025) aligned with trend reversals or acceleration points to the upside.

This recurring alignment underpins the high effectiveness of the cycle‑based swing strategy and confirms that the composite cycle is well synchronized with dominant market rhythm, even as volatility regimes changed.

Current cRSI Indicator Assessment

The cRSI indicator is visible at the bottom of the chart and is therefore incorporated.

Current cRSI State (as of 01/20–01/21/2026)

• Condition: Overbought

• Above upper band: Yes

• Signal: No fresh sell signal (overbought condition is ongoing, not a crossover)

Historical Context

• The last confirmed buy signal occurred on 11/26/2025, shortly after a composite BOTTOM (11/18/2025).

• The last sell signal occurred on 10/10/2025, near a composite TOP (09/26/2025).

Divergence Check

• Bearish divergence starting to setup.

Interpretation:

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Wall Street returned from the Martin Luther King holiday under heavy pressure. Risk appetite faded quickly as equities, crypto assets and high‑beta segments moved decisively lower. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell sharply, at times more than two percent, while volatility picked up noticeably.

What initially looked like a slow and cautious start deteriorated throughout the session. Rising global bond yields, renewed political uncertainty and valuation concerns—particularly in large‑cap technology—triggered broad selling into the close. The VIX moved back toward the 20 area, signaling a clear shift away from complacency.

Corporate earnings delivered mixed signals. United Airlines reported results slightly above expectations, but weak cash flow limited upside. Netflix posted solid headline numbers, yet a softer forward outlook pushed the stock sharply lower after hours, underscoring how sensitive markets remain to any sign of slowing growth.

Sector performance was highly fragmented. Semiconductors, select energy and materials stocks showed relative resilience, while mega‑cap technology names such as Apple, Nvidia and Tesla suffered pronounced losses. Banks benefited from solid earnings and cost discipline. The broader message from strategists was clear: the AI honeymoon phase is fading.

In macro markets, global bond yields continued to rise. Japanese 10‑year yields reached levels not seen since the late 1990s, while U.S. Treasury yields broke higher from their multi‑month range. Commodities remained strong, with gold and silver at new highs and U.S. natural gas surging on extreme cold weather.

Dominant Global Time Cycles – Cycle Extremes in Focus

The following cycle analysis is based on a daily evaluation of approximately 60 global core assets, including major equity indices, sectors and futures markets. Each asset is assigned a cycle rating indicating the probability of a cyclical turning point. Values above +6 or below ‑6 identify potential candidates for meaningful reversals.

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Wall Street started the year with momentum, but the underlying structure remains highly fragmented. Index-level stability masks a market defined by sharp rotations, narrow leadership and growing dispersion between winners and losers.

Small caps continue to outperform, with the Russell 2000 clearly ahead of the S&P 500. This relative strength reflects rising expectations for economic acceleration and improving market breadth, also visible in the outperformance of the equal-weighted S&P 500 versus its market-cap-weighted counterpart.

Semiconductors remain the dominant leadership theme, driven by strong guidance from Taiwan Semiconductor and sustained demand for AI infrastructure. Capital equipment suppliers and select memory names continue to benefit, while large parts of the software and platform space lag as competitive pressure from AI weighs on margins and valuations.

Outside of technology, financials delivered solid but unspectacular earnings reactions, transportation stocks signaled ongoing economic friction, and falling energy prices provided relief for airlines. Commodities, particularly industrial metals, have decoupled from energy and show notable relative strength.

Despite improving macro data and resilient growth expectations, volatility remains elevated. Market leadership is narrow, trends rotate quickly, and selectivity is critical. The broader market environment is far more demanding than in prior years.

Global Cycle Analysis – Framework

The following cycle assessment is based on a daily analysis of approximately 60 global core assets, including major international equity indices and futures markets. Each asset is evaluated within a time-cycle model designed to identify statistically relevant cyclical highs and lows.

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Cyclical sectors such as materials, energy and selected industrials continued to attract flows, driven by surging commodity prices. In contrast, large-cap technology, software and parts of the financial sector faced renewed selling pressure. Defensive consumer names provided selective stabilization.

The real center of gravity remains outside equities. Commodities, particularly precious and industrial metals, are experiencing extreme, volatility-driven moves. These dynamics increasingly dominate cross-asset behavior and feed directly into sector rotation, margin pressure and macro uncertainty.

Sentiment remains fragile and highly reactive. While seasonality still allows for a potential rebound later in January, the signals from rates, currencies and commodities argue for caution. Against this backdrop, timing and cycle positioning become more important than directional conviction.

This brings us to the most critical component of this update: the dominant cycle analysis across global core assets.

Dominant Cycle Analysis – Time Cycles Take Center Stage

Our time-cycle framework continuously filters approximately 60 international core assets, including major global equity indices, sectors, futures and macro instruments. Each asset undergoes a daily cycle analysis to assess whether it is approaching a potential cyclical high (top) or cyclical low (trough). The resulting ratings are ranked by priority.

As defined, ratings above +6 or below –6 mark potential candidates for meaningful turning points.

Cyclical Top Formation – Peaking Assets

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Asset: ServiceNow
Analysis date: 01/12/2026
Focus window: From today (cycle dot) → next composite cycle turn only

1. Composite Cycle vs. Price Behavior (Historical Validation)

The fuchsia composite cycle has shown strong alignment with major trend changes in the blue price series throughout the in-sample and early out-of-sample periods:

• 2022–2024: Cycle tops and bottoms consistently coincided with meaningful price reversals, especially at:

  • Sep 2022 top → subsequent decline

  • Dec 2022 bottom → sustained rally

  • Jun 2023 top → corrective phase

  • Mar 2024 top → consolidation and pullback

• 2024–2025: The cycle continued to correctly frame medium-term swings, including:

  • Dec 2024 cycle top near price peak

  • Mar 25, 2025 cycle bottom preceding a rebound

  • Jun 23, 2025 cycle top followed by renewed weakness

Overall, the composite cycle has been directionally reliable for turning-point timing, not magnitude, and price has repeatedly respected the cycle’s inflection points.

2. Current Position on the Composite Cycle (Today’s Dot)

• Today: 01/12/2026

• The small dot marks price positioned just after a composite cycle BOTTOM dated 12/26/2025.

• From that low, the composite cycle is now rising, projecting an advance into the next major turn.

🔮 Next Expected Composite Cycle Turn

• Date: 03/26/2026

• Type: TOP

➡️ From today until late March 2026, the composite cycle implies a counter-trend recovery / upswing phase, even though the broader trend has recently been bearish.

3. Price Action Context at Today’s Dot

• Current price (~141.8) is:

  • Well below the Dec 2024 highs

  • Below mid-2025 trading ranges

• The decline into late 2025 aligns closely with the descending phase of the composite cycle, reinforcing the validity of the recent cycle bottom.

Price is currently depressed relative to prior cycle midpoints, consistent with early-stage conditions after a cycle trough.

4. cRSI Indicator Status (Confirmed Visible)

The cyclically tuned RSI at the bottom of the chart provides important confirmation:

✅ Current cRSI Condition

• cRSI: 39.50

• Lower band: 41.70

• Status: Oversold

Signal Assessment

• No upward cross of the lower band yet → no confirmed buy signal

• No overbought or sell signals present

• No bullish or bearish divergence between price and cRSI:

  • Price and cRSI are both making lower lows, confirming downside momentum into the recent cycle bottom.

📌 Interpretation:
The market is oversold but stabilizing, consistent with a cycle trough environment, though still in the early phase of recovery.

5. Alignment Between Composite Cycle & cRSI

• The composite cycle has just turned up from a bottom (12/26/2025).

• The cRSI is oversold, historically a condition that often precedes rebounds.

• Although the cRSI has not yet triggered a formal buy signal, its oversold state supports the bullish bias implied by the rising composite cycle.

✅ This creates a constructive alignment:

• Cycle: Timing window favors upside into March 2026

• Momentum: Washed-out conditions, downside pressure likely diminishing

6. Forward Outlook (Strictly Until Next Cycle Turn)

From today → 03/26/2026:

• Composite cycle suggests:

  • A rising phase toward a cycle TOP

  • Increased probability of price recovery or counter-trend rally

• Expectation:

  • Volatility may remain elevated

  • Rallies may initially be corrective rather than impulsive

• Risk:

  • Without a cRSI buy crossover yet, early rebounds could be uneven

📌 No projection is made beyond the March 2026 cycle top, per methodology.

7. Strategy Performance Context (Cycle-Based vs. Long-Only)

Historical results strongly favor the cycle-based approach:

• Cycle Swing System

  • Win rate: 82.35%

  • Total profit: +285.19

• Long-only

  • Total profit: +63.41

➡️ The swing strategy driven by cycle tops and bottoms outperformed buy-and-hold by +221.77 units, validating the practical usefulness of respecting composite cycle turns.

8. Summary Assessment

• The composite cycle has just exited a bottoming phase and is pointing higher into late March 2026.

• Price weakness into year-end 2025 matched the cycle’s downswing, reinforcing confidence in the current turn.

• cRSI is oversold, with no divergence, supporting a developing recovery but signaling patience for confirmation.

• Historically, this combination has favored long-biased exposure during the upswing, with caution as the March 2026 cycle top approaches.

Overall Bias (Until Next Turn):
➡️ Recovery / tactical upside phase, with risk management advised as price approaches the projected March 2026 composite cycle TOP.

© 2026 Lars von Thienen, All Rights Reserved.

Information contained on this site is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Lars von Thienen “lars.cycles.org” is a publisher of scientific cycle analysis results for global markets and is not an investment advisor. The published analysis is not designed to meet your personal circumstances – we are not financial advisors and do not give personalized financial advice. The opinions and statements contained herein are the sole opinion of the author and are subject to change without notice. It may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information.

Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable. They are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the events that will occur.

Investments should be made only after consulting with your financial advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company or companies in question. You shouldn’t make any decision based solely on what you read here.

Neither the publisher, the author nor any of its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein.

The tides reports scans for

• dominant cycles which are in either topping or bottoming condition,

• profitable trading track-record of those dominant cycles, and

• cRSI technical condition below/above dynamic bands.

Finally building a total rating score for peaking and troughing assets with sorting a final table.

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The tides reports scans for

• dominant cycles which are in either topping or bottoming condition,

• profitable trading track-record of those dominant cycles, and

• cRSI technical condition below/above dynamic bands.

Finally building a total rating score for peaking and troughing assets with sorting a final table.

Subscribe now

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