Stock Market Cycles

Russell 2000 joins PHLX Semis at the maximum

Lars von Thienen — Sat, 16 May 2026 07:41:20 GMT

Russell 2000 joins PHLX Semis at the maximum -100 bull exit as Apple enters topping at -87 — May 15, 2026

Friday’s session was a broad-based sell-off. The S&P 500 sank 1.24% to close at 7,408, the equal-weight index dropped 1.03%, the Dow lost 1.07%, the Nasdaq fell 1.54%, and the Russell 2000 tanked 2.44%. Treasuries saw heavy selling with yields rising 6-11bp across the curve, and the market is now placing roughly 60% odds on a 25bp Fed rate hike by year-end — a structural pivot from the no-action consensus that anchored recent sessions. The dollar index spiked 0.50%, Brent crude jumped 3.40% to $109.30 on Iran-deal stalemate concerns, gold tumbled 2.25%, silver collapsed 8.60%, and Bitcoin sank 2.80% to $79,100. The cycle table this morning is reading the configuration directly. Two assets now sit at the maximum negative Consensus Score of -100 with bull exit cRSI confirmation — the Russell 2000 joins the PHLX Semiconductor Index at the absolute floor with the strongest possible momentum state, while Apple enters the topping table at -87 across four cycles with bull exhaustion. Three additional topping entries sit between -86 and -93. The topping table is now seven entries deep with cRSI confirmations at exit, fatigue, or exhaustion on five of the seven.

The macro backdrop fed the rotation cleanly. Trump’s China trip ended without the announcements the market had priced in, leaving expectations for trade, Boeing orders, Iran, and Taiwan progress unfulfilled. Iran negotiations remain at a stalemate, with Brent’s spike Friday reflecting the renewed risk of resumed hostilities. Inflation reports this week ran hot across multiple geographies. The bears’ principal point Friday — that the current tech setup is dangerously and unsustainably imbalanced, with euphoric sentiment and parabolic price action — sits in direct alignment with the cycle reading: two equity benchmarks (Russell 2000 and PHLX Semis) at the maximum negative score with the strongest cRSI state. Apple’s entry at -87 with bull exhaustion extends the topping case into the mega-cap. Our cycle model is reading what the bears in Friday’s session argued: the cyclical conditions for a turn are now present at maximum readings on the topping side, while the bottoming side has lost its strongest gate.

Our daily cycle analysis filters approximately 45 international core assets through the CycleConsensus model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The score ranges from -100 (extreme bearish) to +100 (extreme bullish). Assets at or beyond ±60 are in the critical zone where the conditions for a cyclical turn are statistically elevated. The cRSI column adds a momentum confirmation layer. Let’s take a closer look.

PHLX Semis just printed a composite cycle TOP

Lars von Thienen — Thu, 14 May 2026 10:20:12 GMT

Analysis date: 05/14/2026
Price (latest): ~12,018

Daily Scan reference:

1) Composite cycle versus price: historical alignment

The fuchsia composite cycle aligns repeatedly with major inflection points in the blue price series across the full sample.

Bulls & bears hit the maximum - Gold & Semis

Lars von Thienen — Wed, 13 May 2026 11:26:50 GMT

Bulls & bears hit the maximum: Gold Mining ETF at +100 and PHLX Semis at -100 with full cRSI exit confirmation — May 13, 2026

Wednesday’s pre-market tape opened mixed but tilted heavily into tech. S&P futures gained 0.21%, the Dow eased 0.22%, the Nasdaq rallied 0.72%, and the Russell 2000 advanced 0.24%. The chip complex carried the early bid, driven by the last-minute addition of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to Trump’s China trip — investors hope the accompanying schedule could deliver an H200 breakthrough. European indices traded up 45-55bp with basic resources, tech, insurance, telecom, energy, and utilities leading. Asia was mixed. Brent crude eased 0.15% to roughly $107.60 after a Friday-through-Tuesday spike. The cycle table this morning is reading directly against this morning’s chip enthusiasm — the PHLX Semiconductor Index sits at the maximum possible -100 with a bull exit cRSI, the strongest possible single configuration on the topping side. On the other end, Gold Mining ETF (GDX) sits at the maximum +100 with bear exit. Both maximums are present in the same scan, both with full cRSI exit confirmation.

The macro backdrop continues to frame the rotation. The IEA’s monthly report describes “an unprecedented supply shock” with cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers already exceeding one billion barrels and more than 14 mb/d of oil shut in. Global oil demand is now expected to contract year-over-year in Q2 and decline for the year as a whole. April 2026 was the first month since April 2023 that inflation rose by more than average hourly earnings — a stagflationary read that puts real wages under pressure. Construction projects worldwide are stalling due to Middle East-driven supply-chain snarls.

Our cycle model is reading the configuration plainly: the Russell 2000 enters the topping table for the first time at -90 with bull fatigue, the 2y US Treasury Yield deepens to -76 with bull exit (the strongest cRSI state), and the chip topping signal stands at the absolute ceiling alongside an equally absolute reading on gold miners.

Gold Mining ETF upgrades to bear exit as the topping cluster eases and Nat Gas re-enters the bottoming side

Lars von Thienen — Sat, 09 May 2026 11:40:47 GMT

Gold Mining ETF upgrades to bear exit at +97 as the topping cluster eases and Nat Gas re-enters the bottoming side — May 9, 2026

Wall Street comes off an exceptionally strong multi-week rally that reclaimed trillions in market capitalization and printed fresh all-time highs. The S&P 500’s run from the late-March low has now entered a phase of healthy consolidation, with profit-taking setting in even as the broader bullish structure stays intact. The pullback has been selective: large-cap indices eased modestly while market breadth remained narrow, with leadership concentrated in a small group of mega-cap technology and AI names that continue to dominate index performance. Small caps are lagging, underscoring the uneven nature of the advance.

The cycle table this morning is reading the same uneven configuration directly. Gold Mining ETF (GDX) deepens from Thursday’s +91 to +97 and the cRSI upgrades from bear fatigue to bear exit — the strongest possible cRSI state.

Three further bottoming names sit at +80 — S&P 500 Financials, Nat Gas Futures returning after Friday’s drop-out, and the BRICS iShares BIC 50 ETF as a new entry. The topping side has eased without dissolving: Wheat retreats from -92 with bull exit to -79 with neutral cRSI, the PHLX Semiconductor Index slips from -93 with bull fatigue to -87 with bull exhaustion, and the S&P 500 itself has stepped back below the critical threshold (current score -59.5). T

he cycle structure that anchored the topping case remains across agriculture, semis, energy, and yields, but the cRSI gates that opened on Thursday have not all held.

Earnings season continues to provide the underlying support, but tolerance for disappointment has dropped sharply. Solid numbers are no longer enough if guidance, margins, or forward momentum fail to convince — markets are rewarding precision and punishing complacency. At the macro level, energy prices remain a key risk factor, feeding directly into transport and consumer costs. Central banks are signaling caution, geopolitical tensions remain elevated but contained, and the market does not currently depend on rapid rate cuts to function. Short-term pullbacks are still being treated as opportunities, but selectivity is becoming critical. Not every growth or AI narrative justifies current valuations.

Our cycle model is reading the consequence of that selectivity in the bottoming side rotation: the precious-metals complex anchors with two readings at bear exit confirmation (Gold Mining ETF at +97, Gold Futures at +70), the Nat Gas re-entry alongside Financials and BRICS at +80 broadens the bottoming side beyond precious metals, and the topping table has narrowed from seven to six entries with no bull exit cRSI remaining. The cyclical alert is still present across agriculture, semis, energy, soybeans, and yields, but the momentum gate that briefly opened Thursday has stepped back. The configuration is consistent with the newsletter framing — a multi-week rally meeting selective consolidation rather than a unified break.

S&P 500 itself and semis enters the topping table

Lars von Thienen — Thu, 07 May 2026 19:09:58 GMT

S&P 500 itself enters the topping table as semis hit -93 and gold confirms with bear exit — May 7, 2026

Thursday’s pre-market tape sat close to flat — even as Asia rallied across the board overnight, with the Nikkei surging 5.58% as Japan played catchup after a multi-day holiday closure, the Hang Seng up 1.57%, and the Shanghai Composite up 0.48%. Brent crude extended its decline to roughly $99 on continued Iran-deal optimism, with Tehran expected to issue its response today to a 14-point MOU that would end hostilities and reopen Hormuz. Treasuries extended Wednesday’s gains, with yields sliding another 1-2bp across the curve. The dollar index slipped 0.15%, gold climbed 0.95%, and silver spiked 3.05%. The cycle table this morning is reading what the bears have been saying about the rally for weeks: the S&P 500 itself enters the topping table at -60 with a cRSI bull exhaustion, the PHLX Semiconductor Index sits at -93 with bull fatigue, and the topping side has expanded to seven entries.

The earnings backdrop was the headline bullish driver — Q1 reports continue to outperform broadly. The CF Industries report was the cleanest single illustration of the Iran-driven commodity dislocation: Q1 EBITDA up 148% to $664M, with management noting 50-60% of Middle East ammonia and urea capacity was curtailed or offline in March. Whirlpool, by contrast, posted a 56-cent loss on what management described as “recession-level industry decline in the US as consumer confidence collapsed in late February and March”. Those two reports frame the divergence the cycle model is reading: commodities at maximum cyclical topping readings even as Iran-deal optimism pulls Brent down to $99, and the equity market itself entering the topping zone after weeks of strong reports that the bears now argue are “fairly reflected in stocks.” Our cycle model is reading the macro composition shift: gold confirms with a bear exit, the S&P 500 enters topping with bull exhaustion, and the agriculture/semis/energy complex is at extreme bearish readings.

Nat Gas hits the maximum cycle reading as Palladium confirms with bear exit and the topping cluster collapses

Lars von Thienen — Fri, 01 May 2026 08:07:24 GMT

Nat Gas hits the maximum cycle reading as Palladium confirms with bear exit and the topping cluster collapses — May 1, 2026

Thursday’s session was a broad-based rally. The S&P 500 gained 1.02% to close at 7,209, the equal-weight version advanced 1.51%, the Dow jumped 1.62%, and the Russell 2000 surged 2.20% — the breadth that had been absent through last week reasserted itself. The Nasdaq was a relative underperformer at +0.89%. Treasuries caught a bid with yields sliding 1-6bp across the curve. The dollar index sank 0.90%, with the move dominated by a sharp 2.45% drop against the yen following Japanese intervention; the dollar also fell roughly 1.00% against sterling and 0.52% against the euro. Brent crude reversed sharply, falling 3.40% to roughly $114, while gold rose 1.50% and silver jumped 3.35%. Bitcoin advanced to $76,420. The cycle table this morning is a different table from Tuesday’s — Nat Gas Futures returns to the bottoming side at the maximum reading of +100 with a bear exit cRSI, Palladium upgrades from bear exhaustion to bear exit, and the entire commodity topping cluster that anchored the bearish side last week has collapsed. Silver, oil, and copper have all dropped out of the critical zone.

The Q1 earnings backdrop was the main fundamental driver. Inflation data was inline with expectations on both sides of the Atlantic. Q1 US GDP picked up steam from Q4, weekly claims stayed low, and central banks were no more hawkish than feared at their meetings — though the BOE, BOJ, and ECB are all more likely than not to hike at June meetings, with the BOE chief economist already voting to tighten Thursday. Iran remains at a dangerous impasse with the kinetic phase apparently over but Hormuz still shut. Our cycle model is reading the macro shift in commodities directly: precious-metal mining ETFs enter the bottoming table for the first time, gold rallied 1.50% Thursday, and Wheat deepens to a Consensus Score of -77 with a cRSI bull exhaustion confirmation.

Bottoming cycles

Oil joins silver at the maximum cycle alert as US sectors enter the bottoming table

Lars von Thienen — Tue, 28 Apr 2026 18:05:32 GMT

Oil joins silver at the maximum cycle alert as US sectors enter the bottoming table — April 28, 2026

The Tuesday tape opened with a somber tone. US equity futures were mixed pre-market — S&P 500 futures down 0.11%, Dow futures up 0.14%, Nasdaq futures down 0.36%, the Russell 2000 roughly flat — as Brent crude rallied another 2.4% to near $110.85 on reports the Trump administration is “not happy” with Iran’s latest proposal, the Bank of Japan delivered a hawkish hold (three of nine board members voted for a hike, inflation forecasts were raised), and the Wall Street Journal reported OpenAI fell short of internal revenue and user goals — raising fresh questions about the firm’s ability to fulfill its massive infrastructure obligations. European markets traded firmer with basic resources, banks, insurance, staples, energy and utilities leading; Asia mostly traded lower with the Hang Seng down 0.95% and the Shanghai Composite off 0.19%. Treasury yields rose 1-2bp across the curve in response to the further oil rally. The dollar firmed 0.15%, gold fell 1.15%, silver dropped 2.75%, and Bitcoin slipped to $76,800. Our cycle model is reading the same signal that Brent’s price is now confirming on the upside: oil has deepened to a Consensus Score of -80, joining silver at the maximum reading on the topping table.

The earnings backdrop is the busiest week of the season and frames the cycle table reshuffle. The macro backdrop remains unusual — oil prices and bond yields rising simultaneously while volatility stays subdued, leadership concentrated in semiconductors and AI infrastructure, and the SPX approaching 7,200 with a market priced for an Iran resolution that has not yet arrived. Our cycle model is reading the rotation underneath: Nvidia eases out of its prior bottoming-table peak, two US sectors (Financials and Real Estate) enter the bottoming side for the first time, and the commodity topping cluster narrows as Soybean drops out and Oil deepens to match Silver.

Bottoming cycles

Commodity topping cluster locks in five-for-five as Nat Gas momentum recedes

Lars von Thienen — Sat, 25 Apr 2026 14:01:23 GMT

Commodity topping cluster locks in five-for-five as Nat Gas momentum recedes — April 25, 2026

Friday’s session ended with the headline indices firmer on solid earnings and Iran-deal optimism, but the underlying breadth was thin. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both traded well, while the equal-weight S&P and the Dow lagged — the gains were concentrated in technology and specifically in semiconductors. Outside of chips, the picture was less constructive: financials, healthcare, energy, capital goods, and housing all lagged. The Iran story remained the macro driver, with Witkoff and Kushner heading to Islamabad on Saturday to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi — talks that could accelerate an agreement if Vance and Ghalibaf join. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was extended for three weeks, removing one near-term tail risk. Brent crude held near recent levels and the dollar firmed marginally. Silver remains under cyclical pressure — our model has flagged the long-cycle topping condition for several sessions, and the Friday session did nothing to alter it.

The earnings backdrop is the more durable story. Intel’s release was the largest single positive of the morning. Semiconductor strength continued to broaden. The week ahead is heavy: BOJ Monday night, FOMC Wednesday afternoon, ECB and BOE Thursday morning, and mega-cap tech earnings dominating the back half (AMZN, GOOGL, META, and MSFT after the close on Wednesday; AAPL on Thursday). Our cycle model continues to flag Nvidia in the critical bottoming zone at +71 across three converging cycles, a position consistent with the broader semiconductor strength on display this week.

Bottoming cycles

Natural gas enters maximum cycle alert as commodity top signals multiply

Lars von Thienen — Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:52:55 GMT

Natural gas enters maximum cycle alert as commodity top signals multiply — April 24, 2026

The S&P 500 fell -0.41% on Thursday, ending at 7,108 after probing 7,047 intraday when reports surfaced of a key Iranian negotiator departing the nuclear talks alongside speculation about a resumption of Israeli strikes. The market recovered as the situation stabilized by the close. The Nasdaq dropped -0.89%, the Dow slipped -0.37%, and the Russell 2000 declined -0.37%. Brent crude jumped +3.8% to approximately $105.80, extending the oil price surge that is crushing airline margins specifically. Silver fell -2.65% and gold eased -0.85% — a decline that fits squarely with what our cycle model has been signaling in precious metals. Treasury yields rose 1-2bp across the curve, and markets are now pricing just 6bp of Fed eases for the full year. Bitcoin declined -0.85% to approximately $77,800. The DXY gained +0.25%. The US flash PMIs delivered resilient growth alongside surging inflation, a stagflationary read; in Europe, the picture was more concerning, with inflation spiking while growth buckled.

The Q1 reporting season remains the underappreciated story beneath the geopolitical noise. Most of the large releases over the past two weeks have been beat-and-reiterate or beat-and-raise, and management commentary broadly points to an operating environment more stable than the macro headlines suggest. Analog semiconductors stood out on Thursday: TXN and STM both surged on earnings, with broad strength across the chip supply chain. Transports held firm (CSX, UNP), consumer staples performed well (KDP, NEE), and the managed care group extended its run (MOH). Software was the weak spot — NOW disappointed on subscription revenue growth, citing Iran-linked deal delays. Layoff announcements from KPMG, Meta, and Microsoft added a cautious undertone. The Iran question remains the central risk asymmetry: the market is pricing a resolution, which means a deal consummating delivers diminishing upside while an escalation produces disproportionate downside. Our cycle model places Nvidia in a critical bottoming zone at a score of +72 across three converging cycles — a signal worth tracking alongside the strong semiconductor earnings backdrop.

Our daily cycle analysis scans approximately 45 international core assets through the CycleConsensus model to identify statistically elevated cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The score ranges from -100 (extreme bearish) to +100 (extreme bullish). Assets at or beyond ±60 are in the critical zone where the conditions for a cyclical turn are statistically elevated. The cRSI column adds a momentum confirmation layer. Let’s take a closer look.

April 2026 Performance Review: 74% Hit Rate, Zero Narrative.

Lars von Thienen — Sun, 19 Apr 2026 12:17:35 GMT

Cycles Checkback: how the critical-zone signals played out

Three weeks ago, our consensus model made its calls. This article checks the tape.

Think of it as a barometer reading taken before the storm: the “Cycle Consensus” framework reads cycle pressure across 45 global markets, not news headlines. When multiple independent cycles converge on the same turning point, the Cycle Consensus Score crosses ±60 — the critical zone, where conditions for a cyclical turn are statistically elevated. The model does not know about Iran ceasefires or earnings surprises. It reads cycles.

This review covers 19 mature alerts issued between March 29 and April 18. Each gets a verdict:

confirmed (price moved in the signaled direction within two to four weeks),
partially confirmed (the move started but reversed early or fell short of 3%),
not confirmed (price went the other way), or
too early to assess (signal too recent to judge).

No adjustments after the fact. What follows is the full record.

Summary

Fourteen of 19 mature signals confirmed within three weeks of the alert. Four partially confirmed. One did not.

The three-week window from late March to mid-April 2026 was a high-conviction period: the Iran war, the Hormuz closure, the ceasefire, and a 13% equity rally compressed what would normally be a multi-month cycle into three weeks of concentrated price action. The topping signal on Oil Futures (present before Brent reached its eventual $111 peak) and the cluster of equity bottoming signals issued March 29 through April 8, ahead of the ceasefire rally, are the clearest validations of the alerting function in this window.

The single most striking data point: the Wilshire 5000 registered a confirmed bear exit at a Cycle Consensus Score of +86 on April 3, three days before the Iran ceasefire was announced. The model detected broad-based bottoming conditions in the US equity market before the news catalyst reached the market. The S&P 500 gained 12.8% in the two weeks that followed. The one non-confirmation was S&P 500 Materials, the lowest-conviction signal in the archive: bear exhaustion, not exit, at the minimum old-scale rating. Exit signals confirmed at a materially higher rate than exhaustion signals across this window. The model identifies when conditions for a turn are statistically elevated. In this three-week period, it did that well.

Nine daily cycle analysis articles cover the window from March 29 to April 18, 2026. The period encompassed the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, the Strait of Hormuz closure, the ceasefire breakthrough on April 8, and the equity recovery that carried the S&P 500 from 6,315 to 7,126, a gain of more than 12% in under four weeks. The Cycle Consensus Score model flagged 115 critical-zone signals across those nine articles. Of those, 19 mature signals from articles published before April 13 have had sufficient time to confirm or deny. The 14 signals from April 16 and 18 are too early to assess; they remain open.

Confirmed signals

Signal-by-signal record

Oil Futures — topping alert, first issued March 29. The cycle model flagged Oil Futures as a topping candidate on March 29, on a bull exhaustion cRSI reading across seven contributing cycles (old scale). By April 2, the Cycle Consensus Score read -87 with bull exhaustion. The score upgraded to -87/-100 with bull exit across April 3, 8, and 10. Brent crude was near $111 per barrel at the time of the March 29 alert. On April 8 (the day Iran declared a ceasefire), Brent fell 13.5% in a single session to $94.45. By April 18, the price had declined a further -4.3% to approximately $90.40. Total decline from the alert-date price: approximately -18.6%. The cycle model alerted to conditions that preceded a major cyclical top. Price followed.

S&P 500 Energy — topping alert, first issued April 2 at score -93 (bull fatigue), April 3 at -100 (bull exit). With Oil Futures in a confirmed topping configuration, the S&P 500 Energy sector registered the model’s maximum score alongside a confirmed bull exit by April 3. The sector stood at 915.06 on April 6. By April 17, it had fallen to 842.98, a decline of -7.9%, moving in line with the crude sell-off. APA, COP, OXY, MPC, and VLO were all among the April 18 session’s laggards, confirming persistent sector underperformance.

US Dollar Index — topping alert, April 2–3 at score -93 (bull fatigue). The DXY reached a 10.5-month high on March 30, one day before the cycle model flagged it as a topping candidate. By April 17, the DXY had fallen to 97.70, a decline of -2.4% over the month. The move was directionally correct; the magnitude was modest. The directional precision of the alert at the exact multi-month high puts this squarely in the confirmed column.

German DAX — bottoming alert, first issued March 31, April 2 at score +93 (bear fatigue), April 8 at +100 (bear exit). The DAX was near 22,937 in early April when the model signaled maximum bottoming conviction with a bear exit on April 8. By April 16, the index had recovered to 24,154; by April 18 it held near 24,300, a gain of approximately +5.9% from the signal-date price. The alert arrived before the recovery, not after it.

Hang Seng Index — bottoming alert, first issued March 29, April 2–3 at score +100 (bear exit). Among the most persistently high-conviction signals in the archive. The Hang Seng appeared in the bottoming table across every article from March 29 through April 18, with a score of +100 and a confirmed bear exit by April 2. The index was near 24,200 at the range low and reached 26,394 by April 17, a gain of +9.1%.

BRICS iShares BIC 50 ETF — bottoming alert, first issued March 29, April 2 at score +89 (bear fatigue), April 3 at +95 (bear exit). The broad emerging markets ETF closed at 20.63 on March 30 — the nearest trading day to the alert date. By April 17, it had reached 21.73, a gain of +5.4%. The bear exit confirmation on April 3 arrived before the bulk of that move.

Nasdaq 100 — bottoming alert, first issued April 1 (old scale, bear fatigue), April 2 at score +82 (bear fatigue), April 8 at +95 (bear exit). QQQ closed near $606 on April 8 and reached an all-time high of $640.47 on April 16, a gain of +5.6% from that close. From the March 30 pivot, QQQ rose more than 8.5% by April 16. The bear exit upgrade at +95 on April 8 arrived on the same session as the Iran ceasefire announcement and the start of the sustained breakout.

Nasdaq Composite — bottoming alert, April 1 (old scale), April 2 at score +80 (bear fatigue), April 8 at +87 (bear exit). The Composite stood at 21,879 on April 2. By April 17, it had reached 24,468, a gain of +11.8%. The bear exit upgrade on April 8 preceded the final acceleration leg.

S&P 500 — bottoming alert, April 3 at score +67 (bear fatigue), April 8 at +75 (bear exit). The index stood near 6,315 on March 30. By April 18, it had reached 7,126, a gain of +12.8%. The bear exit upgrade on April 8 coincided with the Iran ceasefire session and the start of the final leg higher.

Wilshire 5000 — bottoming alert, April 3 at score +86 (bear exit), April 8 at +86 (bear exit). The Wilshire 5000 is the broadest measure of the US equity market, covering approximately 3,500 securities. The bear exit confirmation on April 3 arrived before the ceasefire: the model was detecting broad-based bottoming conditions before the news catalyst did. The index gained in excess of 12% over the two weeks that followed. The early timing is the key observation.

Euro FX Futures — bottoming alert, April 2–3 at score +100 (bear exit). The euro registered a maximum Cycle Consensus Score with a confirmed bear exit on April 2, the highest single-day bottoming conviction in the archive for the currency segment. EUR/USD strengthened from the low-$1.13 range to 1.1817 on April 16, a gain of approximately +4.4%.

Gold Futures — bottoming alert, April 2–3 at score +63 (bear exit). Gold was in the early $4,600s when the model flagged it as a bottoming candidate. By April 17, it had reached $4,867, a gain of approximately +5.8%. The metal added a further +1.30% on April 18, extending the move.

PHLX Semiconductor Index — bottoming alert, April 3 at score +66 (bear exit), April 8 at +66 (bear exit). The semiconductor index stood at 7,916 on April 6 — the nearest trading day to the alert date. By April 17, it had reached 9,556, a gain of +20.7%, the largest single-asset move in this review window. The bear exit confirmation on April 3 arrived before the primary leg higher; TSMC’s earnings beat on April 17 amplified the final push.

S&P 500 Financials — bottoming alert, March 29 (old scale, bear exhaustion), April 16 at score +61, April 18 at +62 (five converging cycles). The financials sector appeared in the bottoming table at both ends of the review window: once in the early archive on the old scale, and again in the two most recent articles on the new scale at five-cycle alignment, the highest cycle count in the bottoming table. The sector closed at 805.10 on March 30. By April 17, it had reached 872.34, a gain of +8.4%. On April 18, confirmation arrived at the individual stock level: ALLY, FITB, RF, STT, and TFC all reported strong Q1 earnings and rallied on the session.

Partially confirmed

Palladium Futures — bottoming alert, April 2 at score +93 (bear fatigue), April 8 at +85 (bear exit). Palladium’s path was not linear. After the model flagged a bottoming setup at +93 on April 2, the metal fell sharply, briefly touching below $1,400 on April 8 (the same day the Iran ceasefire was announced, which paradoxically brought broad commodity weakness). The sell-off proved short-lived. By April 15, Palladium had recovered to $1,584. The bottoming signal was valid directionally, but the deeper initial dip before the recovery keeps this at partial rather than full confirmation.

Nifty 50 — bottoming alert, March 29 (old scale, bear fatigue, rating -8), through April 18. The Nifty 50 appeared in the bottoming table across the full three-week window with consistent high scores, reaching a bear exit upgrade on April 10 at +95. India’s index participated in the broader EM recovery through early April. By April 16, however, India was down approximately 0.25% on a session where global markets gained 0.10–0.20%, and relative underperformance continued on April 18. The cyclical bottom appears to have occurred as the model flagged, but relative strength has been limited since. Partially confirmed on an absolute basis, with caveats on relative performance.

Gold Mining Junior ETF — bottoming alert, April 2–3 at score +85 (bear exit), April 8 at +66 (neutral). Gold rose nearly 6% from the April 2 signal date. Mining juniors tend to outperform the underlying metal during gold uptrends, consistent with directional confirmation for this ETF. Specific price data for the ETF is not available in the reviewed sources; partial rather than full confirmation is the appropriate classification.

Soybean Futures — topping alert, first issued March 31 (old scale, bull fatigue), April 2 at score -66, April 3 at -80, April 8 at -80. Soybeans registered a persistent topping alert across five separate articles over three weeks. Despite that duration and the high score, no soybean price data from the reviewed period confirms a directional move. No counter-evidence exists either. Partial confirmation pending price data is the appropriate classification.

Not confirmed

S&P 500 Materials — bottoming alert, March 29 and 31 (old scale, bear exhaustion, rating -7). Materials appeared as a bottoming candidate in the two earliest articles, using the old scoring scale, at the minimum qualifying rating with a bear exhaustion cRSI — the weakest signal type in the hierarchy. As of April 18, chemicals were explicitly among the session’s underperformers: ALB, CF, DOW, and LYB all lagged on a day the broader market gained 1.2%. The sector has not recovered in line with the broader market. The Materials bottoming signals from March 29–31 did not confirm.

Too early to assess

Seven signals issued between April 16 and April 18 have not had sufficient time to confirm or deny.

Full Review Table

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This kind of review only matters if you were there for the signals when they came in. That’s what the daily newsletter is for: each morning, a fresh scan across 45 global markets, and an alert the moment the Cycle Consensus Score crosses into the critical zone. No commentary to fill space. No narrative stitched together after the fact. Just the model, and what it’s reading right now.

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Lars von Thienen

© 2026 Lars von Thienen, All Rights Reserved.

Information contained on this site is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Lars von Thienen (”lars.cycles.org”) is a publisher of scientific cycle analysis results for global markets and is not a registered investment advisor. The published analysis is not designed to meet your personal circumstances. We are not financial advisors and do not give personalized financial advice. The opinions and statements contained herein are the sole opinion of the author and are subject to change without notice. They may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information.

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Bottoming cluster contracts to 8 as rally absorbs Iran optimism

Lars von Thienen — Sat, 18 Apr 2026 07:35:10 GMT

Bottoming cluster contracts to 8 as rally absorbs Iran optimism — Silver Futures enters topping table with maximum 5-cycle alignment

The S&P 500 surged +1.20% to 7,126 on Friday, extending its recovery from 6,315 on March 30 to more than 13% in under four weeks. The Russell 2000 led with +2.10%, the Dow added +1.79%, the Nasdaq +1.52%. The catalyst: Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open to commercial traffic — tying the decision to the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire — while President Trump told reporters a formal US-Iran deal could materialize within days. Brent crude sold off hard, falling -9.00% to approximately $90.40 per barrel, its sharpest single-session drop since the ceasefire broke through the consensus in early April, though the price remains well above pre-war levels. Treasuries caught a meaningful bid, with yields declining 5–8 basis points across the curve as Fed rate-cut expectations edged in a dovish direction. Gold gained +1.30%, silver surged +3.65%. Q1 earnings continued to impress, with all major bank reporters — ALLY, FITB, RF, STT, and TFC — delivering healthy numbers and guidance. Netflix missed Q2 guidance on content-amortization timing rather than a deterioration in business momentum. Alcoa and Ericsson disappointed, with Ericsson flagging surging memory costs as a broadening headwind for tech hardware OEMs.

The equity rally has now absorbed the main geopolitical premium of the Iran conflict, and the market consensus has shifted firmly toward resolution — which, as the bears correctly note, limits the incremental upside from further positive headlines. Our cycle model reflects this transition: the broad bottoming cluster has contracted from 14 signals on Thursday to 8 today, as Wilshire 5000, Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Platinum Futures, and S&P 500 Real Estate have all moved back above their critical-zone thresholds. This is a normalization, not a reversal signal — when cyclical bottoming conditions are confirmed by price, the scores tend to ease as the anticipated turn plays out. The surviving cluster is EM-heavy and commodity-linked: Nifty 50, Hang Seng, BRICS, Palladium, Uranium, Nvidia, and Solana all hold their positions. The more significant development is on the topping side. Silver Futures enters the topping dashboard at a Cycle Consensus Score of -80 across five converging cycles with a 365-day dominant cycle — a structural annual periodicity. Silver rose +3.65% on Friday; the cycle model is alerting to a potential cyclical top while price was still advancing. That divergence — cyclical setup against price momentum — is the most actionable reading in today’s scan.

Our daily cycle analysis scans approximately 45 international core assets — global indices, futures, ETFs, and crypto — through the CycleConsensus model to identify statistically relevant cyclical turning points. The Score ranges from -100 (extreme bearish consensus) to +100 (extreme bullish consensus). Assets at or beyond ±60 are in the critical zone where cyclical conditions for a turning point are statistically elevated. The cRSI column adds a momentum confirmation layer, tracking the exhaustion of the prevailing trend in three stages: Exhaustion (overstretched but still running), Fatigue (beginning to reverse), and Exit (momentum has crossed back through its boundary). Let’s take a closer look.

Bottoming cycles

Equity bottoming cluster broadens to 14 signals while 2-year Treasury yield hits maximum topping score

Lars von Thienen — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 19:09:19 GMT

Equity bottoming cluster broadens to 14 signals while 2-year Treasury yield hits maximum topping score

US equity futures open flat-to-up on Thursday: S&P 500 +0.13%, Nasdaq +0.33%, Dow +0.05%, Russell 2000 flat. European indices gained 0.10–0.20% in early trading, with outperformance in autos, industrials, basic resources, and technology — both semiconductors and software — while utilities, energy, telecoms, and financials lagged. Asia posted broad gains overnight: Nikkei +2.38%, KOSPI +2.21%, Hang Seng +1.72%, Shanghai Composite +0.70%, Taiwan TAIEX +1.12%, with India the exception at roughly -0.25%. Brent crude climbed +1.50% to approximately $96.40 per barrel, a counterintuitive move given the increasingly consensus view that a Middle East ceasefire is imminent — energy traders appear unconvinced that a deal rewrites the structural supply picture. Gold gained +0.50%, silver +1.00%. The dollar index was approximately unchanged. TSMC delivered a standout earnings beat overnight: revenue ahead, full-year growth guidance raised above 30%, capex guided to the high end of the $52–56 billion range, and management commentary bullish on AI-linked demand. China’s Q1 GDP came in at +5.0% (consensus +4.8%) alongside an industrial production beat at +5.7%, though retail sales fell short at +1.7% versus the +2.4% expected — a mixed but net-positive set of data that has not materially shifted the macro narrative.

The ceasefire optimism that drove a sharp equity rebound through early April is now becoming the baseline expectation, which limits its ability to push markets further. With the S&P 500 up roughly 11% month-to-date and entering overbought territory, the window for aggressive buying has narrowed. PPG’s announcement of price increases of up to 20% across its product lines is not an isolated corporate decision — it points to a stagflationary adjustment underway across the economy, with Brent likely finding a new equilibrium in the $80–95 range rather than returning to pre-conflict levels. The cycle model, for its part, has extended its bottoming cluster to 14 assets — the broadest reading in weeks — with Nvidia and S&P 500 Financials entering the critical zone for the first time this cycle. The Wilshire 5000 has upgraded its momentum signal, confirming that the recovery is not confined to a few headline indices. Separately, the 2-year Treasury yield now appears at the top of our topping dashboard with a maximum score, suggesting rate markets may be approaching a cyclical inflection.

Bottoming cycles

Bollinger Bands Meets Cycles

Lars von Thienen — Sat, 11 Apr 2026 17:33:06 GMT

Join us for a special episode of Cycles TV on Monday at noon ET. FSC Board Member Lars von Thienen and legendary market technician John Bollinger discuss cycles, volatility, and the evolution of technical analysis.

Bollinger, founder and president of Bollinger Capital and developer of Bollinger Bands, reflects on how his thinking has increasingly intersected with cycles research over time. From the cyclical nature of volatility to the potential for combining time-based cycles with price-based indicators, the discussion explores where technical analysis may be heading next.

The conversation also offers a preview of what Bollinger will be sharing at Cycles in the City this May in New York, where he will join us as a featured speaker.

Don’t miss the live stream on Monday at noon ET.

Best,
Lars

Cycle Bottoming Signals Hold Ahead of CPI and Iran Talks — Energy Topping Score Eases

Lars von Thienen — Fri, 10 Apr 2026 17:23:50 GMT

Cycle Bottoming Signals Hold Ahead of CPI and Iran Talks — Nifty 50 Confirms Cyclic Bottom, Energy Topping Score Eases, April 10, 2026

Markets are in a holding pattern Friday morning as investors wait on two events: the US CPI for March at 8:30 am ET, where consensus expects a sharp acceleration to +3.4% headline versus +2.4% in February, and the opening round of US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad, which Iranian officials confirmed they have attended and which is set to commence Saturday morning Pakistan time. US equity futures are marginally lower — S&P down 13 basis points, Nasdaq down 13 basis points — while European indices are flat to slightly higher with outperformance in luxury, technology, and healthcare. Asia closed with broad gains: Japan’s Nikkei added 1.84%, Korea’s KOSPI gained 1.4%, Taiwan’s TAIEX rose 1.6%, and the Hang Seng added 0.55%. Brent crude has rebounded approximately 220 basis points to around $98 per barrel — recovering from Tuesday’s 13.5% collapse — as Hormuz traffic remains depressed and Tehran continues to advance plans for a transit toll, a development Trump publicly warned against Thursday night. The dollar is ticking slightly higher (+13 basis points on DXY). Gold and silver are both down modestly. Bitcoin slides 100 basis points to approximately $71,660.

The cycle model’s bottoming signals have consolidated but held their structural core. Twelve assets remain in the critical bottoming zone, down from sixteen on Tuesday as the silver sector, semiconductors, and crypto positions cleared. The core of confirmed turning points — assets with bear exit cRSI — has strengthened rather than weakened: German DAX, Palladium Futures, Nasdaq 100, Nifty 50, Nasdaq Composite, and the S&P 500 all carry bear exit today. The most significant development is the Nifty 50 upgrading from +87 bear fatigue to +95 bear exit on four converging cycles. The cycle model had flagged a bottoming zone for India’s broad market at +87 with fatigue — price has now confirmed that call. The bearish impulse crossed back above its lower boundary, turning a projected setup into a confirmed turning point. Palladium Futures also escalates to its maximum score of +100 bear exit, up from +85. On the topping side, S&P 500 Energy has eased from -100 bull exit to -80 with a neutral cRSI — the maximum topping signal has cleared for the energy sector as Brent bounced off its ceasefire lows. Oil Futures holds at -100 bull exit, unchanged.

The cycle model filters approximately 45 international core assets for statistically relevant cyclical turning points. The Cycle Consensus Score ranges from -100 (maximum bearish alignment) to +100 (maximum bullish alignment). Assets at or beyond ±60 are in the critical zone where cyclical conditions for a trend change are statistically elevated. The cRSI column tracks trend momentum exhaustion across three stages: Exhaustion (maximum overextension, early warning), Fatigue (beginning reversal), and Exit (confirmed momentum reversal).

Bottoming Cycles

Oil Crashes 13% on Iran Ceasefire as Cycle Model Hits Maximum Topping Score

Lars von Thienen — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 18:54:25 GMT

Oil Crashes 13% on Iran Ceasefire as Cycle Model Hits Maximum Topping Score — 16 Assets in the Bottoming Zone, April 8, 2026

Trump announced a 14-day ceasefire with Iran at approximately 6:30 pm ET Tuesday, contingent on the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are responding sharply: S&P 500 futures are up 267 basis points, Nasdaq futures up 350 basis points, Dow futures up 242 basis points, and Russell 2000 futures up 380 basis points. European indices are surging 350–430 basis points with broad gains across autos, industrials, basic resources, technology, banks, and travel. Asia closed decisively higher — Korea’s KOSPI led with +6.87%, Japan’s Nikkei added 5.39%, Taiwan’s TAIEX gained 4.61%, and the Hang Seng rose 3.09%. Brent crude has collapsed 13.5% to approximately $94.45 — from a peak above $111 last Thursday — as Hormuz reopening removes the geopolitical premium that had accumulated over the prior five weeks of conflict. The DXY is sliding approximately 100 basis points. Gold is up 195 basis points, silver surges 560 basis points, and Bitcoin gains 370 basis points to approximately $71,860. Ten-year Treasury yields are down 6 basis points to approximately 4.28%. Energy is the clear underperformer across every market — Europe’s SXEP energy index is down roughly 4%.

The cycle model’s read on this moment is precise. Oil Futures has escalated to a Cycle Consensus Score of -100 with bull exit on three converging cycles — up from -87 bull exhaustion on Good Friday — reaching its maximum topping signal at exactly the session where Brent has collapsed 13.5%. S&P 500 Energy has held at -100 bull exit since Thursday. Both energy instruments are now simultaneously at the absolute peak of their respective topping signals. The US Dollar Index, which carried a score of -93 bull fatigue on Friday, has dropped entirely out of the critical topping zone — the dollar weakness today (-100 basis points on DXY) is the price confirmation of that signal clearing. On the bottoming side, sixteen assets are now in the critical zone — the broadest reading this scan sequence has produced — with the German DAX escalating to +100 bear exit on five converging cycles, the highest cycle count in the entire scan, and Nasdaq 100 escalating from +82 bear fatigue to +95 bear exit.

Bottoming Cycles

S&P 500 Energy Cycle Reaches Maximum Score as Oil Spikes to $111

Lars von Thienen — Fri, 03 Apr 2026 10:21:13 GMT

S&P 500 Energy Cycle Reaches Maximum Score as Oil Spikes to $111 — 13 Assets in the Bottoming Zone, Good Friday April 3, 2026

US markets are closed today for Good Friday. Thursday’s session — the last of a holiday-shortened week — opened sharply lower, with the Dow down more than 600 points at the open, before a late-session rally erased most of those losses. The S&P 500 finished at 6,582.69 (+0.11%), the Nasdaq Composite at 21,879.18 (+0.18%), and the Dow at 46,504.67 (-0.13%). For the week, major indices posted their first winning stretch since the start of the Iran conflict: the S&P 500 gained 3.4%, the Nasdaq surged 4.4%, and the Dow added 3%. The dominant driver was oil: WTI crude settled above $111 per barrel on Thursday, its sharpest single-session surge in weeks, as Middle East tensions re-escalated after earlier signals of a potential wind-down. Tesla fell more than 5% on disappointing quarterly delivery numbers. Energy stocks rose alongside crude.

The weekly rally is technically notable but lacks cross-market confirmation. Ten-year US Treasury yields remain near 4.34%, signaling that bond markets are not pricing in a rapid geopolitical resolution. The rally unfolds ahead of a long Easter weekend, when reduced liquidity and pre-holiday positioning amplify the risk of reversals. The cycle model’s read on this environment is unambiguous in one direction: the S&P 500 Energy sector has escalated to a Cycle Consensus Score of -100, now registering bull exit — the maximum topping signal the model can produce, and an upgrade from -93 bull fatigue on Wednesday. Oil Futures remain at -87 with bull exhaustion on four converging cycles. The price spike to $111 is arriving precisely at the point the cycle model has flagged as maximum exhaustion of the bullish trend. On the bottoming side, thirteen assets are now in the critical zone, up from twelve on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and PHLX Semiconductor joining as new entries and Wilshire 5000 and BRICS upgrading their cRSI signals to bear exit.

Bottoming Cycles

S&P 500 extends gains for a second session as Iran wind-down signals pull oil toward $100

Lars von Thienen — Thu, 02 Apr 2026 09:53:19 GMT

S&P 500 extends gains for a second session as Iran wind-down signals pull oil toward $100, April 2, 2026

Wednesday’s session added to Tuesday’s powerful rebound in a more measured follow-through. The S&P 500 gained +0.72%, the Nasdaq Composite added +1.16%, and the Dow climbed +0.48%, extending the two-day recovery from deeply oversold conditions. The catalysts remained the same: further signals from both Washington and Tehran that US military involvement in Iran is approaching an end. Trump indicated publicly that US engagement could wind down within two to three weeks, and Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that Iran has “the necessary will to end this war.” A Politico report late in the session added that Trump’s 9 p.m. ET national address would formally declare a wind-down, with control over the Strait of Hormuz to be left to other nations. Oil fell sharply in response: Brent crude shed approximately 3% to settle just above $100 per barrel, and WTI settled just below $100. Technology and semiconductors led the advance. Consumer discretionary, luxury, and energy saw profit-taking, with the energy sector underperforming in a pattern that has now extended across two consecutive sessions despite still-elevated crude prices.

The market’s recovery is unfolding against a backdrop of institutional caution. The 200-day moving average in the S&P 500 remains far overhead, and the bounce is technically classified as a counter-trend rally rather than confirmation of a new uptrend. The cycle model is consistent with this framing: the bottoming signals that were already in place before Tuesday’s session have not changed in direction, but they describe cyclical conditions for a low approaching rather than a confirmed reversal. Twelve assets now sit in the critical zone on the bullish side of the dashboard, up from five at the prior close. On the bearish side, two consecutive sessions of oil price confirmation are accumulating against a topping signal that was in place before either decline occurred. The energy sector’s underperformance on both days is consistent with what the cycle model has been showing: S&P 500 Energy entered the topping table at -93, equal to the US Dollar Index reading, and price has moved in the expected direction in each subsequent session. The dollar’s continued weakening adds to a picture where the cycle model’s lead time is visible in real-time.

The daily cycle analysis filters approximately 45 international core assets — including major global indices, futures contracts, ETFs, and crypto — through the CycleConsensus model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The Score ranges from -100 (extreme bearish) to +100 (extreme bullish). Assets at or beyond ±60 are in the critical zone where the cyclical conditions for a turning point are statistically elevated. The cRSI column adds a momentum confirmation layer. Let’s take a closer look.

Bottoming cycles

Equity cycles deepen as oil holds its topping zone

Lars von Thienen — Wed, 01 Apr 2026 06:58:12 GMT

Cycle analysis daily, April 1, 2026: equity cycles deepen as oil holds its topping zone

US equities surged on Tuesday as deescalation signals from the Middle East intensified. The S&P 500 gained 185 points (2.91%) to close near 6,528, the Nasdaq jumped 3.83%, the Dow added 1,125 points, and the Russell 2000 rallied 3.41%. The catalyst was a WSJ report indicating Trump is prepared to exit the conflict without militarily reopening Hormuz, implying a significant reduction in the odds of a large-scale ground campaign. Trump confirmed the report in a social media post Tuesday morning and reiterated that negotiations with Iran are progressing. Iran, for its part, acknowledged that communications are taking place between both sides, and Iran’s president stated the country is ready to end the war. Brent fell 2.7% to approximately $104.50 on the deescalation read. Our cycle model, which has been flagging oil as a topping candidate for several sessions, is watching whether this price decline confirms the cyclical alert that has been in place since last week.

Gold climbed 3.85% and silver advanced 7.35%, a divergence from the risk-on backdrop that is worth noting from a cycle perspective — precious metals strength alongside equity strength is atypical, and the troughing dashboard is now showing broadening exhaustion signals across equity indices. The Hang Seng Index deepened its troughing reading from Monday and leads the bottoming dashboard today. The Nasdaq 100 and Uranium are new entries at the critical threshold. M&A activity provided additional support to sentiment, with approximately $90B in deals announced this week including McCormick-Unilever, Biogen-Apellis, and Eli Lilly-Centessa. Eurozone CPI came in cooler than expected at 2.5% vs. 2.6% forecast, while US home price data showed further cooling, reinforcing the domestic disinflation theme. The yield curve saw modest gains, with yields falling 3-7bp.

The following cycle analysis filters approximately 60 international core assets, including major global indices and futures contracts. Each asset is subjected to a daily cycle model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The embedded Rating is the key indicator. Values above +7 or below -7 mark potential candidates for cyclical turning points and are therefore prioritized. Where an asset also appeared in yesterday’s dashboard, the comparison is noted inline.

Bottoming cycles

Oil pushes to critical cyclical area as agriculture joins the queue

Lars von Thienen — Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:03:38 GMT

Cycle analysis daily, March 31, 2026: oil pushes to +8 as agriculture joins the topping queue

US equities faded after an early bounce on Monday. The S&P 500 lost 25 points (0.39%) to 6,343, the Nasdaq dropped 153 points (0.73%), and the Russell 2000 fell 1.46%. The Dow eked out a small gain of 50 points. Investors once again dismissed the White House’s optimistic framing of negotiations with Iran. The gap between the administration’s rhetoric and actual developments on the ground remains wide: fighting continues unabated, Iran struck critical economic infrastructure over the weekend (including aluminum facilities and a desalination plant in Kuwait), and the Houthis formally entered the war by firing missiles at Israel. Until a senior US official gets on a plane to meet Iranian counterparts, or until Iran’s own commentary turns more constructive, markets are likely to keep fading the happy talk. Our cycle model, meanwhile, is now registering the highest topping reading for oil in several weeks.

Brent rose 1.1% to approximately $113.85 after touching $117 overnight. Gold added 0.5% and silver gained 0.6%. Treasuries rallied with yields falling 7-9bp across the curve, as the market swung from pricing 10bp of Fed hikes to 5bp of cuts. The dollar rose 0.4% broadly but fell against the yen after forceful rhetoric from Japanese officials. Germany’s March CPI accelerated 80bp to 2.8%, a sign that the stagflationary impulse from the Middle East conflict is now washing through the European economy. Tech continued to trade poorly for reasons largely independent of geopolitics, with chips and capital goods among the hardest hit groups. On the constructive side, insurance, healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities outperformed, and it is worth noting that several of these defensive and cyclical names are starting to appear on our bottoming cycles dashboard. The German DAX, in particular, has pushed into the critical zone on the troughing side despite the negative CPI print.

Bottoming cycles

Oil Cycles Flash Topping Signals as Equities Search for a Floor

Lars von Thienen — Sun, 29 Mar 2026 17:44:27 GMT

US equities sold off broadly on Friday. The S&P 500 dropped 108 points (1.67%) to 5,568, the Dow fell 792 points (1.72%), the Nasdaq lost 460 points (2.15%), and the Russell 2000 slumped 1.75%. The Middle East conflict remains the dominant driver. A second Trump deadline deferral on Iran (now pushed to April 6) did little to calm markets. The Pentagon is reportedly considering 10,000 additional troops for the region, Israel announced an expansion of its campaign on Friday morning, and peace negotiations appear to have stalled. The base case across markets remains that further escalation is more likely than de-escalation. The stagflationary hit to the US economy could last months. However, our cycle models are now picking up early signs that this pressure may be approaching an inflection point, particularly in the energy complex where oil is showing one of the strongest topping signals we have seen in weeks.

Brent crude surged over 5% to approximately $113.80, recovering all of Monday’s 11% decline and finishing the week up roughly $1.60. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and threats to close Bab el-Mandeb continue to support prices. The question from a cyclical perspective is whether this rally still has room to run, or whether it is nearing exhaustion. The cycle data below will show where we stand on that. Treasuries diverged: 2-year yields fell 8bp on safety demand while 10-year and 30-year yields rose 2bp and 5bp respectively, as inflation expectations moved higher. The market is now pricing in approximately 6bp of Fed hikes for the year. Fed official Roberto Perli warned that the pace of government bond purchases would slow after mid-April, while Fed governor Miran suggested the central bank’s balance sheet could shrink by up to $2 trillion without material market disruption. Gold rose 3.25% and silver 2.80%, and it is worth noting that precious metals and miners are also starting to show cyclical bottoming signals. In tech, the selling continued largely independent of geopolitics: software names faced another round of AI disruption-related pressure, and the sector is still dealing with a streamlined OpenAI, a large IPO pipeline, and concerns about legacy software displacement. Carnival was forced to cut its full-year guidance as surging fuel costs offset what would otherwise have been a solid quarter. On the other side, financials were among the hardest hit sectors on Friday (BAC, C, JPM, MS all down sharply), yet our cycle model places them near a potential cyclical low.

The following cycle analysis filters approximately 60 international core assets, including major global indices and futures contracts. Each asset is subjected to a daily cycle model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The embedded Rating is the key indicator. Values above +7 or below -7 mark potential candidates for cyclical turning points and are therefore prioritized. Today’s dashboards show several assets at or near these thresholds. Let’s take a closer look.