Commodity topping cluster locks in five-for-five as Nat Gas momentum recedes — April 25, 2026

Friday’s session ended with the headline indices firmer on solid earnings and Iran-deal optimism, but the underlying breadth was thin. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both traded well, while the equal-weight S&P and the Dow lagged — the gains were concentrated in technology and specifically in semiconductors. Outside of chips, the picture was less constructive: financials, healthcare, energy, capital goods, and housing all lagged. The Iran story remained the macro driver, with Witkoff and Kushner heading to Islamabad on Saturday to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi — talks that could accelerate an agreement if Vance and Ghalibaf join. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was extended for three weeks, removing one near-term tail risk. Brent crude held near recent levels and the dollar firmed marginally. Silver remains under cyclical pressure — our model has flagged the long-cycle topping condition for several sessions, and the Friday session did nothing to alter it.

The earnings backdrop is the more durable story. Intel’s release was the largest single positive of the morning. Semiconductor strength continued to broaden. The week ahead is heavy: BOJ Monday night, FOMC Wednesday afternoon, ECB and BOE Thursday morning, and mega-cap tech earnings dominating the back half (AMZN, GOOGL, META, and MSFT after the close on Wednesday; AAPL on Thursday). Our cycle model continues to flag Nvidia in the critical bottoming zone at +71 across three converging cycles, a position consistent with the broader semiconductor strength on display this week.

Our daily cycle analysis filters approximately 45 international core assets through the CycleConsensus model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The score ranges from -100 (extreme bearish) to +100 (extreme bullish). Assets at or beyond ±60 are in the critical zone where the conditions for a cyclical turn are statistically elevated. The cRSI column adds a momentum confirmation layer. Let’s take a closer look.

Bottoming cycles

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Natural gas enters maximum cycle alert as commodity top signals multiply — April 24, 2026

The S&P 500 fell -0.41% on Thursday, ending at 7,108 after probing 7,047 intraday when reports surfaced of a key Iranian negotiator departing the nuclear talks alongside speculation about a resumption of Israeli strikes. The market recovered as the situation stabilized by the close. The Nasdaq dropped -0.89%, the Dow slipped -0.37%, and the Russell 2000 declined -0.37%. Brent crude jumped +3.8% to approximately $105.80, extending the oil price surge that is crushing airline margins specifically. Silver fell -2.65% and gold eased -0.85% — a decline that fits squarely with what our cycle model has been signaling in precious metals. Treasury yields rose 1-2bp across the curve, and markets are now pricing just 6bp of Fed eases for the full year. Bitcoin declined -0.85% to approximately $77,800. The DXY gained +0.25%. The US flash PMIs delivered resilient growth alongside surging inflation, a stagflationary read; in Europe, the picture was more concerning, with inflation spiking while growth buckled.

The Q1 reporting season remains the underappreciated story beneath the geopolitical noise. Most of the large releases over the past two weeks have been beat-and-reiterate or beat-and-raise, and management commentary broadly points to an operating environment more stable than the macro headlines suggest. Analog semiconductors stood out on Thursday: TXN and STM both surged on earnings, with broad strength across the chip supply chain. Transports held firm (CSX, UNP), consumer staples performed well (KDP, NEE), and the managed care group extended its run (MOH). Software was the weak spot — NOW disappointed on subscription revenue growth, citing Iran-linked deal delays. Layoff announcements from KPMG, Meta, and Microsoft added a cautious undertone. The Iran question remains the central risk asymmetry: the market is pricing a resolution, which means a deal consummating delivers diminishing upside while an escalation produces disproportionate downside. Our cycle model places Nvidia in a critical bottoming zone at a score of +72 across three converging cycles — a signal worth tracking alongside the strong semiconductor earnings backdrop.

Our daily cycle analysis scans approximately 45 international core assets through the CycleConsensus model to identify statistically elevated cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The score ranges from -100 (extreme bearish) to +100 (extreme bullish). Assets at or beyond ±60 are in the critical zone where the conditions for a cyclical turn are statistically elevated. The cRSI column adds a momentum confirmation layer. Let’s take a closer look.

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Cycles Checkback: how the critical-zone signals played out

Three weeks ago, our consensus model made its calls. This article checks the tape.

Think of it as a barometer reading taken before the storm: the “Cycle Consensus” framework reads cycle pressure across 45 global markets, not news headlines. When multiple independent cycles converge on the same turning point, the Cycle Consensus Score crosses ±60 — the critical zone, where conditions for a cyclical turn are statistically elevated. The model does not know about Iran ceasefires or earnings surprises. It reads cycles.

This review covers 19 mature alerts issued between March 29 and April 18. Each gets a verdict:

• confirmed (price moved in the signaled direction within two to four weeks),

• partially confirmed (the move started but reversed early or fell short of 3%),

• not confirmed (price went the other way), or

• too early to assess (signal too recent to judge).

No adjustments after the fact. What follows is the full record.

Summary

Fourteen of 19 mature signals confirmed within three weeks of the alert. Four partially confirmed. One did not.

The three-week window from late March to mid-April 2026 was a high-conviction period: the Iran war, the Hormuz closure, the ceasefire, and a 13% equity rally compressed what would normally be a multi-month cycle into three weeks of concentrated price action. The topping signal on Oil Futures (present before Brent reached its eventual $111 peak) and the cluster of equity bottoming signals issued March 29 through April 8, ahead of the ceasefire rally, are the clearest validations of the alerting function in this window.

The single most striking data point: the Wilshire 5000 registered a confirmed bear exit at a Cycle Consensus Score of +86 on April 3, three days before the Iran ceasefire was announced. The model detected broad-based bottoming conditions in the US equity market before the news catalyst reached the market. The S&P 500 gained 12.8% in the two weeks that followed. The one non-confirmation was S&P 500 Materials, the lowest-conviction signal in the archive: bear exhaustion, not exit, at the minimum old-scale rating. Exit signals confirmed at a materially higher rate than exhaustion signals across this window. The model identifies when conditions for a turn are statistically elevated. In this three-week period, it did that well.

Nine daily cycle analysis articles cover the window from March 29 to April 18, 2026. The period encompassed the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, the Strait of Hormuz closure, the ceasefire breakthrough on April 8, and the equity recovery that carried the S&P 500 from 6,315 to 7,126, a gain of more than 12% in under four weeks. The Cycle Consensus Score model flagged 115 critical-zone signals across those nine articles. Of those, 19 mature signals from articles published before April 13 have had sufficient time to confirm or deny. The 14 signals from April 16 and 18 are too early to assess; they remain open.

Confirmed signals

Signal-by-signal record

Oil Futures — topping alert, first issued March 29. The cycle model flagged Oil Futures as a topping candidate on March 29, on a bull exhaustion cRSI reading across seven contributing cycles (old scale). By April 2, the Cycle Consensus Score read -87 with bull exhaustion. The score upgraded to -87/-100 with bull exit across April 3, 8, and 10. Brent crude was near $111 per barrel at the time of the March 29 alert. On April 8 (the day Iran declared a ceasefire), Brent fell 13.5% in a single session to $94.45. By April 18, the price had declined a further -4.3% to approximately $90.40. Total decline from the alert-date price: approximately -18.6%. The cycle model alerted to conditions that preceded a major cyclical top. Price followed.

S&P 500 Energy — topping alert, first issued April 2 at score -93 (bull fatigue), April 3 at -100 (bull exit). With Oil Futures in a confirmed topping configuration, the S&P 500 Energy sector registered the model’s maximum score alongside a confirmed bull exit by April 3. The sector stood at 915.06 on April 6. By April 17, it had fallen to 842.98, a decline of -7.9%, moving in line with the crude sell-off. APA, COP, OXY, MPC, and VLO were all among the April 18 session’s laggards, confirming persistent sector underperformance.

US Dollar Index — topping alert, April 2–3 at score -93 (bull fatigue). The DXY reached a 10.5-month high on March 30, one day before the cycle model flagged it as a topping candidate. By April 17, the DXY had fallen to 97.70, a decline of -2.4% over the month. The move was directionally correct; the magnitude was modest. The directional precision of the alert at the exact multi-month high puts this squarely in the confirmed column.

German DAX — bottoming alert, first issued March 31, April 2 at score +93 (bear fatigue), April 8 at +100 (bear exit). The DAX was near 22,937 in early April when the model signaled maximum bottoming conviction with a bear exit on April 8. By April 16, the index had recovered to 24,154; by April 18 it held near 24,300, a gain of approximately +5.9% from the signal-date price. The alert arrived before the recovery, not after it.

Hang Seng Index — bottoming alert, first issued March 29, April 2–3 at score +100 (bear exit). Among the most persistently high-conviction signals in the archive. The Hang Seng appeared in the bottoming table across every article from March 29 through April 18, with a score of +100 and a confirmed bear exit by April 2. The index was near 24,200 at the range low and reached 26,394 by April 17, a gain of +9.1%.

BRICS iShares BIC 50 ETF — bottoming alert, first issued March 29, April 2 at score +89 (bear fatigue), April 3 at +95 (bear exit). The broad emerging markets ETF closed at 20.63 on March 30 — the nearest trading day to the alert date. By April 17, it had reached 21.73, a gain of +5.4%. The bear exit confirmation on April 3 arrived before the bulk of that move.

Nasdaq 100 — bottoming alert, first issued April 1 (old scale, bear fatigue), April 2 at score +82 (bear fatigue), April 8 at +95 (bear exit). QQQ closed near $606 on April 8 and reached an all-time high of $640.47 on April 16, a gain of +5.6% from that close. From the March 30 pivot, QQQ rose more than 8.5% by April 16. The bear exit upgrade at +95 on April 8 arrived on the same session as the Iran ceasefire announcement and the start of the sustained breakout.

Nasdaq Composite — bottoming alert, April 1 (old scale), April 2 at score +80 (bear fatigue), April 8 at +87 (bear exit). The Composite stood at 21,879 on April 2. By April 17, it had reached 24,468, a gain of +11.8%. The bear exit upgrade on April 8 preceded the final acceleration leg.

S&P 500 — bottoming alert, April 3 at score +67 (bear fatigue), April 8 at +75 (bear exit). The index stood near 6,315 on March 30. By April 18, it had reached 7,126, a gain of +12.8%. The bear exit upgrade on April 8 coincided with the Iran ceasefire session and the start of the final leg higher.

Wilshire 5000 — bottoming alert, April 3 at score +86 (bear exit), April 8 at +86 (bear exit). The Wilshire 5000 is the broadest measure of the US equity market, covering approximately 3,500 securities. The bear exit confirmation on April 3 arrived before the ceasefire: the model was detecting broad-based bottoming conditions before the news catalyst did. The index gained in excess of 12% over the two weeks that followed. The early timing is the key observation.

Euro FX Futures — bottoming alert, April 2–3 at score +100 (bear exit). The euro registered a maximum Cycle Consensus Score with a confirmed bear exit on April 2, the highest single-day bottoming conviction in the archive for the currency segment. EUR/USD strengthened from the low-$1.13 range to 1.1817 on April 16, a gain of approximately +4.4%.

Gold Futures — bottoming alert, April 2–3 at score +63 (bear exit). Gold was in the early $4,600s when the model flagged it as a bottoming candidate. By April 17, it had reached $4,867, a gain of approximately +5.8%. The metal added a further +1.30% on April 18, extending the move.

PHLX Semiconductor Index — bottoming alert, April 3 at score +66 (bear exit), April 8 at +66 (bear exit). The semiconductor index stood at 7,916 on April 6 — the nearest trading day to the alert date. By April 17, it had reached 9,556, a gain of +20.7%, the largest single-asset move in this review window. The bear exit confirmation on April 3 arrived before the primary leg higher; TSMC’s earnings beat on April 17 amplified the final push.

S&P 500 Financials — bottoming alert, March 29 (old scale, bear exhaustion), April 16 at score +61, April 18 at +62 (five converging cycles). The financials sector appeared in the bottoming table at both ends of the review window: once in the early archive on the old scale, and again in the two most recent articles on the new scale at five-cycle alignment, the highest cycle count in the bottoming table. The sector closed at 805.10 on March 30. By April 17, it had reached 872.34, a gain of +8.4%. On April 18, confirmation arrived at the individual stock level: ALLY, FITB, RF, STT, and TFC all reported strong Q1 earnings and rallied on the session.

Partially confirmed

Palladium Futures — bottoming alert, April 2 at score +93 (bear fatigue), April 8 at +85 (bear exit). Palladium’s path was not linear. After the model flagged a bottoming setup at +93 on April 2, the metal fell sharply, briefly touching below $1,400 on April 8 (the same day the Iran ceasefire was announced, which paradoxically brought broad commodity weakness). The sell-off proved short-lived. By April 15, Palladium had recovered to $1,584. The bottoming signal was valid directionally, but the deeper initial dip before the recovery keeps this at partial rather than full confirmation.

Nifty 50 — bottoming alert, March 29 (old scale, bear fatigue, rating -8), through April 18. The Nifty 50 appeared in the bottoming table across the full three-week window with consistent high scores, reaching a bear exit upgrade on April 10 at +95. India’s index participated in the broader EM recovery through early April. By April 16, however, India was down approximately 0.25% on a session where global markets gained 0.10–0.20%, and relative underperformance continued on April 18. The cyclical bottom appears to have occurred as the model flagged, but relative strength has been limited since. Partially confirmed on an absolute basis, with caveats on relative performance.

Gold Mining Junior ETF — bottoming alert, April 2–3 at score +85 (bear exit), April 8 at +66 (neutral). Gold rose nearly 6% from the April 2 signal date. Mining juniors tend to outperform the underlying metal during gold uptrends, consistent with directional confirmation for this ETF. Specific price data for the ETF is not available in the reviewed sources; partial rather than full confirmation is the appropriate classification.

Soybean Futures — topping alert, first issued March 31 (old scale, bull fatigue), April 2 at score -66, April 3 at -80, April 8 at -80. Soybeans registered a persistent topping alert across five separate articles over three weeks. Despite that duration and the high score, no soybean price data from the reviewed period confirms a directional move. No counter-evidence exists either. Partial confirmation pending price data is the appropriate classification.

Not confirmed

S&P 500 Materials — bottoming alert, March 29 and 31 (old scale, bear exhaustion, rating -7). Materials appeared as a bottoming candidate in the two earliest articles, using the old scoring scale, at the minimum qualifying rating with a bear exhaustion cRSI — the weakest signal type in the hierarchy. As of April 18, chemicals were explicitly among the session’s underperformers: ALB, CF, DOW, and LYB all lagged on a day the broader market gained 1.2%. The sector has not recovered in line with the broader market. The Materials bottoming signals from March 29–31 did not confirm.

Too early to assess

Seven signals issued between April 16 and April 18 have not had sufficient time to confirm or deny.

Full Review Table

If you made it this far — thank you!

This kind of review only matters if you were there for the signals when they came in. That’s what the daily newsletter is for: each morning, a fresh scan across 45 global markets, and an alert the moment the Cycle Consensus Score crosses into the critical zone. No commentary to fill space. No narrative stitched together after the fact. Just the model, and what it’s reading right now.

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All the best, yours,
Lars von Thienen

© 2026 Lars von Thienen, All Rights Reserved.

Information contained on this site is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Lars von Thienen (”lars.cycles.org”) is a publisher of scientific cycle analysis results for global markets and is not a registered investment advisor. The published analysis is not designed to meet your personal circumstances. We are not financial advisors and do not give personalized financial advice. The opinions and statements contained herein are the sole opinion of the author and are subject to change without notice. They may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information.

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Bottoming cluster contracts to 8 as rally absorbs Iran optimism — Silver Futures enters topping table with maximum 5-cycle alignment

The S&P 500 surged +1.20% to 7,126 on Friday, extending its recovery from 6,315 on March 30 to more than 13% in under four weeks. The Russell 2000 led with +2.10%, the Dow added +1.79%, the Nasdaq +1.52%. The catalyst: Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open to commercial traffic — tying the decision to the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire — while President Trump told reporters a formal US-Iran deal could materialize within days. Brent crude sold off hard, falling -9.00% to approximately $90.40 per barrel, its sharpest single-session drop since the ceasefire broke through the consensus in early April, though the price remains well above pre-war levels. Treasuries caught a meaningful bid, with yields declining 5–8 basis points across the curve as Fed rate-cut expectations edged in a dovish direction. Gold gained +1.30%, silver surged +3.65%. Q1 earnings continued to impress, with all major bank reporters — ALLY, FITB, RF, STT, and TFC — delivering healthy numbers and guidance. Netflix missed Q2 guidance on content-amortization timing rather than a deterioration in business momentum. Alcoa and Ericsson disappointed, with Ericsson flagging surging memory costs as a broadening headwind for tech hardware OEMs.

The equity rally has now absorbed the main geopolitical premium of the Iran conflict, and the market consensus has shifted firmly toward resolution — which, as the bears correctly note, limits the incremental upside from further positive headlines. Our cycle model reflects this transition: the broad bottoming cluster has contracted from 14 signals on Thursday to 8 today, as Wilshire 5000, Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Platinum Futures, and S&P 500 Real Estate have all moved back above their critical-zone thresholds. This is a normalization, not a reversal signal — when cyclical bottoming conditions are confirmed by price, the scores tend to ease as the anticipated turn plays out. The surviving cluster is EM-heavy and commodity-linked: Nifty 50, Hang Seng, BRICS, Palladium, Uranium, Nvidia, and Solana all hold their positions. The more significant development is on the topping side. Silver Futures enters the topping dashboard at a Cycle Consensus Score of -80 across five converging cycles with a 365-day dominant cycle — a structural annual periodicity. Silver rose +3.65% on Friday; the cycle model is alerting to a potential cyclical top while price was still advancing. That divergence — cyclical setup against price momentum — is the most actionable reading in today’s scan.

Our daily cycle analysis scans approximately 45 international core assets — global indices, futures, ETFs, and crypto — through the CycleConsensus model to identify statistically relevant cyclical turning points. The Score ranges from -100 (extreme bearish consensus) to +100 (extreme bullish consensus). Assets at or beyond ±60 are in the critical zone where cyclical conditions for a turning point are statistically elevated. The cRSI column adds a momentum confirmation layer, tracking the exhaustion of the prevailing trend in three stages: Exhaustion (overstretched but still running), Fatigue (beginning to reverse), and Exit (momentum has crossed back through its boundary). Let’s take a closer look.

Bottoming cycles

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Equity bottoming cluster broadens to 14 signals while 2-year Treasury yield hits maximum topping score

US equity futures open flat-to-up on Thursday: S&P 500 +0.13%, Nasdaq +0.33%, Dow +0.05%, Russell 2000 flat. European indices gained 0.10–0.20% in early trading, with outperformance in autos, industrials, basic resources, and technology — both semiconductors and software — while utilities, energy, telecoms, and financials lagged. Asia posted broad gains overnight: Nikkei +2.38%, KOSPI +2.21%, Hang Seng +1.72%, Shanghai Composite +0.70%, Taiwan TAIEX +1.12%, with India the exception at roughly -0.25%. Brent crude climbed +1.50% to approximately $96.40 per barrel, a counterintuitive move given the increasingly consensus view that a Middle East ceasefire is imminent — energy traders appear unconvinced that a deal rewrites the structural supply picture. Gold gained +0.50%, silver +1.00%. The dollar index was approximately unchanged. TSMC delivered a standout earnings beat overnight: revenue ahead, full-year growth guidance raised above 30%, capex guided to the high end of the $52–56 billion range, and management commentary bullish on AI-linked demand. China’s Q1 GDP came in at +5.0% (consensus +4.8%) alongside an industrial production beat at +5.7%, though retail sales fell short at +1.7% versus the +2.4% expected — a mixed but net-positive set of data that has not materially shifted the macro narrative.

The ceasefire optimism that drove a sharp equity rebound through early April is now becoming the baseline expectation, which limits its ability to push markets further. With the S&P 500 up roughly 11% month-to-date and entering overbought territory, the window for aggressive buying has narrowed. PPG’s announcement of price increases of up to 20% across its product lines is not an isolated corporate decision — it points to a stagflationary adjustment underway across the economy, with Brent likely finding a new equilibrium in the $80–95 range rather than returning to pre-conflict levels. The cycle model, for its part, has extended its bottoming cluster to 14 assets — the broadest reading in weeks — with Nvidia and S&P 500 Financials entering the critical zone for the first time this cycle. The Wilshire 5000 has upgraded its momentum signal, confirming that the recovery is not confined to a few headline indices. Separately, the 2-year Treasury yield now appears at the top of our topping dashboard with a maximum score, suggesting rate markets may be approaching a cyclical inflection.

Our daily cycle analysis scans approximately 45 international core assets — global indices, futures, ETFs, and crypto — through the CycleConsensus model to identify statistically relevant cyclical turning points. The Score ranges from -100 (extreme bearish consensus) to +100 (extreme bullish consensus). Assets at or beyond ±60 are in the critical zone where cyclical conditions for a turning point are statistically elevated. The cRSI column adds a momentum confirmation layer, tracking the exhaustion of the prevailing trend in three stages: Exhaustion (overstretched but still running), Fatigue (beginning to reverse), and Exit (momentum has crossed back through its boundary). Let’s take a closer look.

Bottoming cycles

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Bollinger, founder and president of Bollinger Capital and developer of Bollinger Bands, reflects on how his thinking has increasingly intersected with cycles research over time. From the cyclical nature of volatility to the potential for combining time-based cycles with price-based indicators, the discussion explores where technical analysis may be heading next.

The conversation also offers a preview of what Bollinger will be sharing at Cycles in the City this May in New York, where he will join us as a featured speaker.

Don’t miss the live stream on Monday at noon ET.

Best,
Lars

Cycle Bottoming Signals Hold Ahead of CPI and Iran Talks — Nifty 50 Confirms Cyclic Bottom, Energy Topping Score Eases, April 10, 2026

Markets are in a holding pattern Friday morning as investors wait on two events: the US CPI for March at 8:30 am ET, where consensus expects a sharp acceleration to +3.4% headline versus +2.4% in February, and the opening round of US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad, which Iranian officials confirmed they have attended and which is set to commence Saturday morning Pakistan time. US equity futures are marginally lower — S&P down 13 basis points, Nasdaq down 13 basis points — while European indices are flat to slightly higher with outperformance in luxury, technology, and healthcare. Asia closed with broad gains: Japan’s Nikkei added 1.84%, Korea’s KOSPI gained 1.4%, Taiwan’s TAIEX rose 1.6%, and the Hang Seng added 0.55%. Brent crude has rebounded approximately 220 basis points to around $98 per barrel — recovering from Tuesday’s 13.5% collapse — as Hormuz traffic remains depressed and Tehran continues to advance plans for a transit toll, a development Trump publicly warned against Thursday night. The dollar is ticking slightly higher (+13 basis points on DXY). Gold and silver are both down modestly. Bitcoin slides 100 basis points to approximately $71,660.

The cycle model’s bottoming signals have consolidated but held their structural core. Twelve assets remain in the critical bottoming zone, down from sixteen on Tuesday as the silver sector, semiconductors, and crypto positions cleared. The core of confirmed turning points — assets with bear exit cRSI — has strengthened rather than weakened: German DAX, Palladium Futures, Nasdaq 100, Nifty 50, Nasdaq Composite, and the S&P 500 all carry bear exit today. The most significant development is the Nifty 50 upgrading from +87 bear fatigue to +95 bear exit on four converging cycles. The cycle model had flagged a bottoming zone for India’s broad market at +87 with fatigue — price has now confirmed that call. The bearish impulse crossed back above its lower boundary, turning a projected setup into a confirmed turning point. Palladium Futures also escalates to its maximum score of +100 bear exit, up from +85. On the topping side, S&P 500 Energy has eased from -100 bull exit to -80 with a neutral cRSI — the maximum topping signal has cleared for the energy sector as Brent bounced off its ceasefire lows. Oil Futures holds at -100 bull exit, unchanged.

The cycle model filters approximately 45 international core assets for statistically relevant cyclical turning points. The Cycle Consensus Score ranges from -100 (maximum bearish alignment) to +100 (maximum bullish alignment). Assets at or beyond ±60 are in the critical zone where cyclical conditions for a trend change are statistically elevated. The cRSI column tracks trend momentum exhaustion across three stages: Exhaustion (maximum overextension, early warning), Fatigue (beginning reversal), and Exit (confirmed momentum reversal).

Bottoming Cycles

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Oil Crashes 13% on Iran Ceasefire as Cycle Model Hits Maximum Topping Score — 16 Assets in the Bottoming Zone, April 8, 2026

Trump announced a 14-day ceasefire with Iran at approximately 6:30 pm ET Tuesday, contingent on the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are responding sharply: S&P 500 futures are up 267 basis points, Nasdaq futures up 350 basis points, Dow futures up 242 basis points, and Russell 2000 futures up 380 basis points. European indices are surging 350–430 basis points with broad gains across autos, industrials, basic resources, technology, banks, and travel. Asia closed decisively higher — Korea’s KOSPI led with +6.87%, Japan’s Nikkei added 5.39%, Taiwan’s TAIEX gained 4.61%, and the Hang Seng rose 3.09%. Brent crude has collapsed 13.5% to approximately $94.45 — from a peak above $111 last Thursday — as Hormuz reopening removes the geopolitical premium that had accumulated over the prior five weeks of conflict. The DXY is sliding approximately 100 basis points. Gold is up 195 basis points, silver surges 560 basis points, and Bitcoin gains 370 basis points to approximately $71,860. Ten-year Treasury yields are down 6 basis points to approximately 4.28%. Energy is the clear underperformer across every market — Europe’s SXEP energy index is down roughly 4%.

The cycle model’s read on this moment is precise. Oil Futures has escalated to a Cycle Consensus Score of -100 with bull exit on three converging cycles — up from -87 bull exhaustion on Good Friday — reaching its maximum topping signal at exactly the session where Brent has collapsed 13.5%. S&P 500 Energy has held at -100 bull exit since Thursday. Both energy instruments are now simultaneously at the absolute peak of their respective topping signals. The US Dollar Index, which carried a score of -93 bull fatigue on Friday, has dropped entirely out of the critical topping zone — the dollar weakness today (-100 basis points on DXY) is the price confirmation of that signal clearing. On the bottoming side, sixteen assets are now in the critical zone — the broadest reading this scan sequence has produced — with the German DAX escalating to +100 bear exit on five converging cycles, the highest cycle count in the entire scan, and Nasdaq 100 escalating from +82 bear fatigue to +95 bear exit.

The cycle model filters approximately 45 international core assets for statistically relevant cyclical turning points. The Cycle Consensus Score ranges from -100 (maximum bearish alignment) to +100 (maximum bullish alignment). Assets at or beyond ±60 are in the critical zone where cyclical conditions for a trend change are statistically elevated. The cRSI column tracks trend momentum exhaustion across three stages: Exhaustion (maximum overextension, early warning), Fatigue (beginning reversal), and Exit (confirmed momentum reversal).

Bottoming Cycles

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S&P 500 Energy Cycle Reaches Maximum Score as Oil Spikes to $111 — 13 Assets in the Bottoming Zone, Good Friday April 3, 2026

US markets are closed today for Good Friday. Thursday’s session — the last of a holiday-shortened week — opened sharply lower, with the Dow down more than 600 points at the open, before a late-session rally erased most of those losses. The S&P 500 finished at 6,582.69 (+0.11%), the Nasdaq Composite at 21,879.18 (+0.18%), and the Dow at 46,504.67 (-0.13%). For the week, major indices posted their first winning stretch since the start of the Iran conflict: the S&P 500 gained 3.4%, the Nasdaq surged 4.4%, and the Dow added 3%. The dominant driver was oil: WTI crude settled above $111 per barrel on Thursday, its sharpest single-session surge in weeks, as Middle East tensions re-escalated after earlier signals of a potential wind-down. Tesla fell more than 5% on disappointing quarterly delivery numbers. Energy stocks rose alongside crude.

The weekly rally is technically notable but lacks cross-market confirmation. Ten-year US Treasury yields remain near 4.34%, signaling that bond markets are not pricing in a rapid geopolitical resolution. The rally unfolds ahead of a long Easter weekend, when reduced liquidity and pre-holiday positioning amplify the risk of reversals. The cycle model’s read on this environment is unambiguous in one direction: the S&P 500 Energy sector has escalated to a Cycle Consensus Score of -100, now registering bull exit — the maximum topping signal the model can produce, and an upgrade from -93 bull fatigue on Wednesday. Oil Futures remain at -87 with bull exhaustion on four converging cycles. The price spike to $111 is arriving precisely at the point the cycle model has flagged as maximum exhaustion of the bullish trend. On the bottoming side, thirteen assets are now in the critical zone, up from twelve on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and PHLX Semiconductor joining as new entries and Wilshire 5000 and BRICS upgrading their cRSI signals to bear exit.

The cycle model filters approximately 45 international core assets for statistically relevant cyclical turning points. The Cycle Consensus Score ranges from -100 (maximum bearish alignment) to +100 (maximum bullish alignment). Assets at or beyond ±60 are in the critical zone where cyclical conditions for a trend change are statistically elevated. The cRSI column tracks trend momentum exhaustion across three stages: Exhaustion (maximum overextension, early warning), Fatigue (beginning reversal), and Exit (confirmed momentum reversal).

Bottoming Cycles

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S&P 500 extends gains for a second session as Iran wind-down signals pull oil toward $100, April 2, 2026

Wednesday’s session added to Tuesday’s powerful rebound in a more measured follow-through. The S&P 500 gained +0.72%, the Nasdaq Composite added +1.16%, and the Dow climbed +0.48%, extending the two-day recovery from deeply oversold conditions. The catalysts remained the same: further signals from both Washington and Tehran that US military involvement in Iran is approaching an end. Trump indicated publicly that US engagement could wind down within two to three weeks, and Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that Iran has “the necessary will to end this war.” A Politico report late in the session added that Trump’s 9 p.m. ET national address would formally declare a wind-down, with control over the Strait of Hormuz to be left to other nations. Oil fell sharply in response: Brent crude shed approximately 3% to settle just above $100 per barrel, and WTI settled just below $100. Technology and semiconductors led the advance. Consumer discretionary, luxury, and energy saw profit-taking, with the energy sector underperforming in a pattern that has now extended across two consecutive sessions despite still-elevated crude prices.

The market’s recovery is unfolding against a backdrop of institutional caution. The 200-day moving average in the S&P 500 remains far overhead, and the bounce is technically classified as a counter-trend rally rather than confirmation of a new uptrend. The cycle model is consistent with this framing: the bottoming signals that were already in place before Tuesday’s session have not changed in direction, but they describe cyclical conditions for a low approaching rather than a confirmed reversal. Twelve assets now sit in the critical zone on the bullish side of the dashboard, up from five at the prior close. On the bearish side, two consecutive sessions of oil price confirmation are accumulating against a topping signal that was in place before either decline occurred. The energy sector’s underperformance on both days is consistent with what the cycle model has been showing: S&P 500 Energy entered the topping table at -93, equal to the US Dollar Index reading, and price has moved in the expected direction in each subsequent session. The dollar’s continued weakening adds to a picture where the cycle model’s lead time is visible in real-time.

The daily cycle analysis filters approximately 45 international core assets — including major global indices, futures contracts, ETFs, and crypto — through the CycleConsensus model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The Score ranges from -100 (extreme bearish) to +100 (extreme bullish). Assets at or beyond ±60 are in the critical zone where the cyclical conditions for a turning point are statistically elevated. The cRSI column adds a momentum confirmation layer. Let’s take a closer look.

Bottoming cycles

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Cycle analysis daily, April 1, 2026: equity cycles deepen as oil holds its topping zone

US equities surged on Tuesday as deescalation signals from the Middle East intensified. The S&P 500 gained 185 points (2.91%) to close near 6,528, the Nasdaq jumped 3.83%, the Dow added 1,125 points, and the Russell 2000 rallied 3.41%. The catalyst was a WSJ report indicating Trump is prepared to exit the conflict without militarily reopening Hormuz, implying a significant reduction in the odds of a large-scale ground campaign. Trump confirmed the report in a social media post Tuesday morning and reiterated that negotiations with Iran are progressing. Iran, for its part, acknowledged that communications are taking place between both sides, and Iran’s president stated the country is ready to end the war. Brent fell 2.7% to approximately $104.50 on the deescalation read. Our cycle model, which has been flagging oil as a topping candidate for several sessions, is watching whether this price decline confirms the cyclical alert that has been in place since last week.

Gold climbed 3.85% and silver advanced 7.35%, a divergence from the risk-on backdrop that is worth noting from a cycle perspective — precious metals strength alongside equity strength is atypical, and the troughing dashboard is now showing broadening exhaustion signals across equity indices. The Hang Seng Index deepened its troughing reading from Monday and leads the bottoming dashboard today. The Nasdaq 100 and Uranium are new entries at the critical threshold. M&A activity provided additional support to sentiment, with approximately $90B in deals announced this week including McCormick-Unilever, Biogen-Apellis, and Eli Lilly-Centessa. Eurozone CPI came in cooler than expected at 2.5% vs. 2.6% forecast, while US home price data showed further cooling, reinforcing the domestic disinflation theme. The yield curve saw modest gains, with yields falling 3-7bp.

The following cycle analysis filters approximately 60 international core assets, including major global indices and futures contracts. Each asset is subjected to a daily cycle model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The embedded Rating is the key indicator. Values above +7 or below -7 mark potential candidates for cyclical turning points and are therefore prioritized. Where an asset also appeared in yesterday’s dashboard, the comparison is noted inline.

Bottoming cycles

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Cycle analysis daily, March 31, 2026: oil pushes to +8 as agriculture joins the topping queue

US equities faded after an early bounce on Monday. The S&P 500 lost 25 points (0.39%) to 6,343, the Nasdaq dropped 153 points (0.73%), and the Russell 2000 fell 1.46%. The Dow eked out a small gain of 50 points. Investors once again dismissed the White House’s optimistic framing of negotiations with Iran. The gap between the administration’s rhetoric and actual developments on the ground remains wide: fighting continues unabated, Iran struck critical economic infrastructure over the weekend (including aluminum facilities and a desalination plant in Kuwait), and the Houthis formally entered the war by firing missiles at Israel. Until a senior US official gets on a plane to meet Iranian counterparts, or until Iran’s own commentary turns more constructive, markets are likely to keep fading the happy talk. Our cycle model, meanwhile, is now registering the highest topping reading for oil in several weeks.

Brent rose 1.1% to approximately $113.85 after touching $117 overnight. Gold added 0.5% and silver gained 0.6%. Treasuries rallied with yields falling 7-9bp across the curve, as the market swung from pricing 10bp of Fed hikes to 5bp of cuts. The dollar rose 0.4% broadly but fell against the yen after forceful rhetoric from Japanese officials. Germany’s March CPI accelerated 80bp to 2.8%, a sign that the stagflationary impulse from the Middle East conflict is now washing through the European economy. Tech continued to trade poorly for reasons largely independent of geopolitics, with chips and capital goods among the hardest hit groups. On the constructive side, insurance, healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities outperformed, and it is worth noting that several of these defensive and cyclical names are starting to appear on our bottoming cycles dashboard. The German DAX, in particular, has pushed into the critical zone on the troughing side despite the negative CPI print.

The following cycle analysis filters approximately 60 international core assets, including major global indices and futures contracts. Each asset is subjected to a daily cycle model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The embedded Rating is the key indicator. Values above +7 or below -7 mark potential candidates for cyclical turning points and are therefore prioritized.

Bottoming cycles

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US equities sold off broadly on Friday. The S&P 500 dropped 108 points (1.67%) to 5,568, the Dow fell 792 points (1.72%), the Nasdaq lost 460 points (2.15%), and the Russell 2000 slumped 1.75%. The Middle East conflict remains the dominant driver. A second Trump deadline deferral on Iran (now pushed to April 6) did little to calm markets. The Pentagon is reportedly considering 10,000 additional troops for the region, Israel announced an expansion of its campaign on Friday morning, and peace negotiations appear to have stalled. The base case across markets remains that further escalation is more likely than de-escalation. The stagflationary hit to the US economy could last months. However, our cycle models are now picking up early signs that this pressure may be approaching an inflection point, particularly in the energy complex where oil is showing one of the strongest topping signals we have seen in weeks.

Brent crude surged over 5% to approximately $113.80, recovering all of Monday’s 11% decline and finishing the week up roughly $1.60. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and threats to close Bab el-Mandeb continue to support prices. The question from a cyclical perspective is whether this rally still has room to run, or whether it is nearing exhaustion. The cycle data below will show where we stand on that. Treasuries diverged: 2-year yields fell 8bp on safety demand while 10-year and 30-year yields rose 2bp and 5bp respectively, as inflation expectations moved higher. The market is now pricing in approximately 6bp of Fed hikes for the year. Fed official Roberto Perli warned that the pace of government bond purchases would slow after mid-April, while Fed governor Miran suggested the central bank’s balance sheet could shrink by up to $2 trillion without material market disruption. Gold rose 3.25% and silver 2.80%, and it is worth noting that precious metals and miners are also starting to show cyclical bottoming signals. In tech, the selling continued largely independent of geopolitics: software names faced another round of AI disruption-related pressure, and the sector is still dealing with a streamlined OpenAI, a large IPO pipeline, and concerns about legacy software displacement. Carnival was forced to cut its full-year guidance as surging fuel costs offset what would otherwise have been a solid quarter. On the other side, financials were among the hardest hit sectors on Friday (BAC, C, JPM, MS all down sharply), yet our cycle model places them near a potential cyclical low.

The following cycle analysis filters approximately 60 international core assets, including major global indices and futures contracts. Each asset is subjected to a daily cycle model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases. The embedded Rating is the key indicator. Values above +7 or below -7 mark potential candidates for cyclical turning points and are therefore prioritized. Today’s dashboards show several assets at or near these thresholds. Let’s take a closer look.

Bottoming cycles

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Wall Street experienced a clear risk‑off session. Despite strong corporate earnings, markets closed near their daily lows, signaling active risk reduction rather than simple profit‑taking. Persistent inflation pressures, rising bond yields, geopolitical escalation, and a Federal Reserve firmly in wait‑and‑see mode continue to dominate investor positioning.

The Dow Jones fell roughly 1.6% to a new yearly low. The S&P 500 slipped below its closely watched 200‑day moving average, a technically relevant warning signal. The Nasdaq also weakened, with technology stocks no longer serving as a safe haven.

Micron delivered outstanding results across revenue, earnings, and margins, raised guidance significantly, and increased its dividend by 30%. Yet the stock failed to hold early gains, reinforcing the current pattern: good news is sold in an environment where expectations are already elevated.

Oil prices remained the dominant macro driver. Brent temporarily moved above USD 108, while WTI approached the USD 100 mark amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. At these levels, oil acts as a broad tax on the global economy rather than a sector‑specific issue.

The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged as expected, but the tone remained cautious. Inflation is easing from its peaks but remains too high, particularly due to energy prices and tariffs. The Fed now signals only one rate cut for the year, reinforcing the “higher for longer” narrative.

Global Time Cycles – Core Focus

The following cycle analysis filters approximately 60 international core assets, including major global indices and futures contracts. Each asset is subjected to a daily cycle model to identify statistically relevant cyclical topping or bottoming phases.

The embedded Rating is the key indicator. Values above +6 or below -6 mark potential candidates for meaningful cyclical turning points and are therefore prioritized.

Cyclical Top Formation

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This article is based on a YouTube live episode of FSC Cycles TV featuring
Lars von Thienen and Tom McClellan from March 16. 2026.

Most investors spend their days parsing earnings reports, tracking Federal Reserve minutes, and watching employment data tick by tick. Very few think to look 93 million miles away — at the sun — for clues about where the economy is heading next. But perhaps they should.

In a recent episode of Cycles TV, hosted by Lars von Thienen of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, market analyst Tom McClellan presented a compelling body of research connecting the roughly 11-year sunspot cycle to Treasury yield spreads, unemployment rates, hurricane frequency, and episodes of social upheaval. The correlations are striking, the methodology is transparent, and the forward-looking implications deserve serious attention from anyone making investment decisions in the years ahead.

This article unpacks the key findings from that conversation, explains the analytical framework behind them, and examines what the data suggest about the economic and geopolitical landscape through 2027 and beyond.

A Quick Primer on the Solar Cycle

The sun is not a static furnace. Its energy output oscillates on a cycle that averages roughly 11 years, though individual cycles can range from about 8 to 14 years. The most accessible measure of this variability is the sunspot count — a record that stretches all the way back to 1749, when an early astronomer first began systematically logging the dark spots visible on the solar disk through a filtered telescope.

During the active phase of the cycle, sunspot counts soar, solar flares intensify, and the sun’s electromagnetic output increases markedly. During the quiet phase, the sun settles into a calmer state with minimal surface activity. Modern solar scientists have far more sophisticated instruments at their disposal — X-ray measurements, coronal mass ejection tracking, and detailed magnetic field mapping — but the sunspot count remains the longest continuous dataset we have, and it serves as a practical proxy for the sun’s overall activity level.

The current solar cycle #25 peaked in October 2024. Sunspot counts are now declining, which places us in the early stages of the descending phase — a position with meaningful implications for the topics discussed below.

The Yield Curve and the Three-Year Lag

McClellan’s central observation involves the spread between the 10-year and 1-year U.S. Treasury note yields — a standard measure of the yield curve’s steepness. When this spread is high, long-term rates far exceed short-term rates, typically reflecting a period when the Federal Reserve has cut rates in response to economic weakness. When the spread inverts (goes below zero), short-term rates exceed long-term rates, usually because the Fed is tightening to combat inflation.

What makes the analysis remarkable is the overlay: when you shift the sunspot count forward by approximately three years and plot it against the yield spread, the two series track each other with surprising fidelity. Sunspot peaks, lagged by three years, correspond to peaks in the yield spread. Sunspot troughs correspond to yield spread troughs.

The three-year lag is a critical detail. McClellan did not arrive at it by assumption — he tested multiple lag periods and found that roughly three years (with some natural variation around 2.8 to 3.2 years) produced the most consistent alignment. The fact that this is a leading relationship adds weight to the argument: it is difficult to argue that the yield curve is causing sunspot activity. The more natural interpretation is that the sun’s output is, through some mechanism, influencing economic conditions on a delayed basis.

There are, of course, exceptions. The Arab oil embargo of the mid-1970s, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (exacerbated by the Fed keeping rates artificially low for too long under Greenspan), and the COVID-19 pandemic all disrupted the otherwise smooth correlation. But here is the telling part: after each of these exogenous shocks passed, the relationship reasserted itself. The natural rhythm returned.

Right now, the yield curve is steepening — short-term rates are falling while long-term rates hold elevated — which aligns precisely with what the three-year-lagged sunspot model predicts. If the model holds, this steepening trend should continue toward a peak around 2027, roughly three years after the 2024 sunspot maximum.

Unemployment Follows the Same Rhythm

McClellan extended the same analytical framework to the U.S. unemployment rate, and the results are equally compelling. Using the identical three-year forward shift of sunspot data, sunspot minimums align with unemployment minimums, and sunspot maximums align with unemployment maximums.

The logic chain is intuitive: as the economy weakens and unemployment rises, the Fed cuts rates, steepening the yield curve. Both phenomena — rising unemployment and a steeper yield curve — dance to the same solar drummer, just three years behind.

Again, the model is not perfect. The distortions introduced by Greenspan-era monetary policy, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID spike are visible in the data. But if you mentally set aside those singular events, the underlying rhythm is unmistakable.

The practical takeaway? Based on this framework, unemployment should continue rising through approximately August 2027 — three years after the 2024 sunspot peak — before beginning to decline. That timeline carries obvious political implications: the economic headwinds through 2026 and into early 2027 are likely to create a challenging environment, with recovery potentially becoming visible only as we approach 2028.

Digital Signal Processing Confirms the Pattern

One of the most valuable segments of the conversation involved Lars von Thienen applying digital signal processing (DSP) techniques to the yield spread data using the Foundation for the Study of Cycles’ proprietary cycle analysis tools.

When the raw 10-year minus 2-year spread data was fed into the cycle scanner, the dominant detected cycle came in at 105 months — approximately 8.75 years. That is on the lower end of the known solar cycle range, but not quite at the expected average of roughly 11 years.

This is where McClellan’s domain expertise proved essential. He pointed out that the three exogenous events (oil embargo, 2008 crisis, COVID) had skewed the data. Von Thienen then created a corrected dataset — a virtual time series with those event-driven distortions smoothed out. When this adjusted data was re-analyzed, the dominant cycle shifted to 124 months, or 10.3 years — almost exactly the average length of recent solar cycles.

This exercise illustrates a fundamental principle of cycle analysis: static, purely mathematical approaches have limitations. Real-world cycles are dynamic. They stretch, compress, and occasionally get overwhelmed by singular events. The analyst who combines computational tools with contextual understanding of the data will always outperform the one who relies on algorithms alone.

As McClellan put it, you take the hypothesis, push it, challenge it, tweak it, and press it until it reveals its secrets. That iterative process — moving between data-driven detection and judgment-informed correction — is the hallmark of serious cycle research.

Hurricanes and the Inverted Solar Signal

The financial markets are not the only domain where sunspot cycles leave their fingerprint. McClellan also presented data on global tropical cyclone frequency, drawing on work by meteorologist Ryan Maue, who compiled a three-year running sum of worldwide hurricane activity.

The relationship here is inverted: when sunspot counts are at their maximum, global hurricane frequency tends to be at its minimum. As sunspots decline, hurricane activity ramps up. The mechanism is not fully understood — it may involve how solar output modulates upper-atmosphere wind shear, sea surface temperatures, or other atmospheric dynamics — but the pattern in the data is clear.

Since we are now in a period of declining sunspot numbers heading toward the next solar minimum (expected around 2030), the implication is that global hurricane frequency should increase over the latter half of this decade. The quiet 2025 Atlantic season, with no hurricanes making U.S. landfall, may prove to be the calm before a more active period.

This is worth noting not as cause for alarm, but as context. Hurricane activity naturally oscillates on multi-year timescales, and understanding the solar connection helps place any single season — whether unusually quiet or unusually active — within a broader framework.

Social Unrest and the Ascending Phase

Perhaps the most provocative strand of McClellan’s research draws on work originally conducted over a century ago by Alexander Chizhevsky, a Russian scientist who studied the relationship between solar activity and episodes of social upheaval1.

Chizhevsky’s core finding was that the ascending phase of each sunspot cycle — the period when solar activity is ramping up toward its peak — tends to coincide with increased social unrest: revolutions, mass protests, political upheavals. The declining phase, conversely, tends to coincide with resolution and relative calm.

McClellan extended this analysis through the modern era, noting that the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Iranian Revolution of 1979, and the recent protest movements in Iran during 2022-2023 all occurred during ascending phases of their respective sunspot cycles.

There is a valid critique of this line of analysis: social unrest is not easily quantified, and if you look hard enough, you can find examples of upheaval at almost any point in history. McClellan acknowledged this limitation openly. The correlation is suggestive rather than definitive, and it relies more on narrative pattern-matching than on the kind of hard numerical analysis that characterizes the yield spread and unemployment work.

Still, the broader point has merit. If solar activity does influence human neurology in even subtle ways — and the physical mechanism is at least plausible, given the sun’s demonstrated ability to affect electromagnetic systems on Earth — then it would be surprising if that influence had no detectable effect on collective human behavior.

The current declining phase suggests a period of relative resolution rather than new eruptions of unrest. The next ascending phase, beginning in the early 2030s, would be the period to watch for the next wave of large-scale social movements.

What This Means for Investors in 2026 and Beyond

Drawing the threads together, here is the forward-looking picture that emerges from the sunspot framework:

The yield curve should continue steepening through approximately 2027, reflecting ongoing monetary easing and economic softness. The unemployment rate is expected to rise into mid-to-late 2027 before turning. This suggests that the recession many analysts have been debating may indeed materialize, or at the very least that economic growth will remain subdued for the next 12 to 18 months. Hurricane activity is likely to increase as we move deeper into the declining phase of the solar cycle, with implications for insurance markets, energy infrastructure, and coastal real estate. The current period favors resolution of social and geopolitical tensions rather than the eruption of new ones, though the early 2030s could see a reversal of that trend.

None of these projections should be treated as certainties. McClellan himself was emphatic on this point: cycles provide expectations, not guarantees. The analyst’s job does not end with generating a forecast — it continues with daily monitoring, validation, and willingness to adjust when the data diverge from the model.

The Case for Keeping an Open Mind

One of the recurring themes in the conversation was the resistance that this kind of cross-disciplinary analysis encounters. Astronomers study the sun. Economists study markets. The two communities rarely overlap, and each tends to view the other’s domain as irrelevant to their own. Climate scientists focus on atmospheric dynamics and resist the suggestion that their data might have financial applications. Market practitioners, in turn, dismiss anything that cannot be expressed in a Bloomberg terminal query.

McClellan has experienced this pushback firsthand and makes a pragmatic case for intellectual openness. We use gravity every day without fully understanding it. We flip light switches without knowing the physics of electron flow. Understanding why something works is fascinating and worth pursuing, but it is not a prerequisite for using the relationship. The human brain is, at a fundamental level, an electrochemical system — a bundle of wires, as McClellan put it. If a sufficiently powerful solar event like the 1859 Carrington Event can induce voltage surges on telegraph wires and fry electronics, it is not a large conceptual leap to consider that subtler variations in solar output might influence the electrical activity in the human nervous system, even if only at the margins.

The sunspot-to-yield-curve correlation, with its three-year lag, is not a magic formula. It broke down during the GFC. It broke down during COVID. But it has reasserted itself every time, and it is currently tracking well. For an investor, that represents useful information — one more input in the decision-making process, not a replacement for all other inputs, but a genuinely informative one.

It is also worth noting what this framework is not. It is not astrology. It is not planetary alignment mysticism. McClellan was explicit in distinguishing his solar-based research from the kind of horoscope-style market analysis that has long given technical analysis a bad name. His approach starts with data, tests for statistical relationships, applies time-shifting to optimize correlation, and then subjects the results to scrutiny — including the honest acknowledgment of where and why the model fails. That is the scientific method, applied to an unconventional dataset.

Looking Ahead - “Cycles in the City”

The Foundation for the Study of Cycles continues to explore these relationships through both traditional analysis and modern digital signal processing tools. The upcoming Cycles in the City conference in New York (late May 2026) will feature McClellan speaking on the physics of natural frequencies and their application to financial markets — a topic that bridges his background in aerospace engineering at West Point and his three decades of market analysis alongside his father, Sherman McClellan.

Register here: cycles.org/cycles-in-the-city/

For those interested in the intersection of natural science and market behavior, this is an area of research that rewards curiosity and punishes closed-mindedness. The sun has been cycling for billions of years. The data now stretches back nearly three centuries. The correlations are measurable, the framework is testable, and the implications are actionable.

As McClellan reminded us: you take the hypothesis, push it, challenge it, tweak it, and press it until it confesses all of its sins. That is how real discovery happens — not by clinging to a single model, but by iterating between expectation and confirmation, between the computational and the contextual, between what the data say and what the world actually does.

The only question is whether you are willing to look up.

All the best,
Lars von Thienen
Tom McClellan

The Foundation for the Study of Cycles conducts ongoing research into cyclical patterns across markets, natural systems, and human behavior. For more information, visit the Foundation’s website or subscribe to McClellan Financial Publications for regular market timing analysis.

About the authors

Tom McClellan is the editor of The McClellan Market Report and creator of the McClellan Oscillator, one of the most widely followed breadth indicators in technical analysis. His research spans market cycles, liquidity patterns, and intermarket relationships. Learn more at mcoscillator.com.

Lars von Thienen is a member of the Board of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and creator of the cycle analysis platform. He hosts Cycles TV, a series dedicated to exploring the role of natural and market cycles in financial decision-making. Learn more at cycles.org.

Disclaimer

Information contained on this site is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Lars von Thienen “lars.cycles.org” is a publisher of scientific cycle analysis results for global markets and is not an investment advisor. The published analysis is not designed to meet your personal circumstances – we are not financial advisors and do not give personalized financial advice. The opinions and statements contained herein are the sole opinion of the author and are subject to change without notice. It may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information.

Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable. They are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the events that will occur.

Investments should be made only after consulting with your financial advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company or companies in question. You shouldn’t make any decision based solely on what you read here.

Neither the publisher, the author nor any of its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein.

In this upcoming live episode of Cycles TV, Tom McClellan (McClellan Financial Publications, mcoscillator.com) joins Lars von Thienen for a deep dive into one of the most fascinating — and underappreciated — correlations in market research: the link between sunspot cycles and financial markets.

What You’ll Discover

Tom has spent decades analyzing market internals and breadth indicators. In this conversation, he brings 130 years of data to the table — and the patterns are hard to ignore. When you shift the sunspot count forward by just three years, it lines up with yield-curve inversions, unemployment surges, and some of the most dramatic turning points in modern economic history.

The discussion covers the sunspot-to-yield-curve lag and what it tells us about the direction of interest rates, the recurring alignment between solar maxima and spikes in unemployment going back to the Korean War, how the DJIA has behaved around sunspot peaks since 1890, the surprising correlation between solar activity and global hurricane frequency, and perhaps most provocatively — how over a century of social upheaval, from the Russian Revolution to the Arab Spring to the GameStop short squeeze, clusters around sunspot peaks.

Whether you’re a seasoned cycles analyst, a macro trader looking for an edge, or simply curious about the invisible forces that shape our world — this is a conversation you don’t want to miss.

Join Us Live — Ask Your Questions

This is a live stream. We’ll be taking questions from the audience in real time, so come prepared. Whether you want to dig deeper into the data, challenge the thesis, or ask about what the current sunspot cycle means for markets going forward — this is your chance to engage directly with Tom and Lars.

Date: March 16, 2026
Time: Berlin 18:00 | London 17:00 | New York 1pm | Los Angeles 10am
Where: YouTube Live — Cycles TV channel

Set your reminder now:

About the Guests

Tom McClellan is the editor of The McClellan Market Report and creator of the McClellan Oscillator, one of the most widely followed breadth indicators in technical analysis. His research spans market cycles, liquidity patterns, and intermarket relationships. Learn more at mcoscillator.com.

Lars von Thienen is a member of the Board of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and creator of the cycle analysis platform. He hosts Cycles TV, a series dedicated to exploring the role of natural and market cycles in financial decision-making. Learn more at cycles.org.

US equity markets continue to trade on extremely fragile footing. Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, historic swings in oil prices and inconsistent political messaging from Washington have driven sharp overnight sell-offs followed by equally sharp intraday rebounds.

Despite deep overnight losses in S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures, Wall Street once again opened well above the lows. This pattern of violent shocks followed by fast counter-moves remains a defining feature of the current market regime.

Volatility remains elevated even as the VIX temporarily retreated intraday. Markets are reacting hypersensitively to every new headline from the White House or the Middle East, with sentiment flipping between fear and hope within hours.

Sector-wise, we observed a clear rotation. Semiconductors and memory stocks rebounded strongly after recent underperformance, supported by positive commentary and upgraded forecasts. In contrast, parts of the software sector and other recent outperformers saw profit-taking.

Oil markets remain the epicenter of instability. WTI surged close to USD 120 before collapsing below USD 90 within 24 hours. This extreme range underlines how politically driven and fragile current price discovery has become, with direct spillovers into bonds, equities and volatility.

Global Cycle Analysis – Focus on Dominant Turning Points

Our daily cycle framework filters approximately 60 international core assets, including global equity indices and futures contracts. Each asset is evaluated through a proprietary cycle model to identify potential cyclical highs or lows.

Ratings above +6 or below –6 flag assets with an elevated probability of a meaningful cyclical turning point. Below we summarize the most relevant signals, ranked by priority.

Read more

Global Dominant Cycle Watch – 14 February 2026

Wall Street Snapshot

In brief: Wall Street remains deeply fragmented. On the surface, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq appear relatively stable, but beneath the index level volatility is accelerating sharply. Single stocks are swinging by double digits in both directions, while index heavyweights continue to mask internal weakness.

US inflation data provided short‑term relief. Headline CPI eased to 2.4% year over year (from 2.7%), with a 0.2% monthly increase below expectations. Cooling rents and energy prices helped stabilize futures, though the effect remained largely superficial.

The tech sector is already experiencing a de facto bear market beneath the surface. Many stocks trade 30–50% below their highs, while a handful of mega caps keep the indices afloat. This divergence significantly increases systemic risk.

Earnings reactions remain erratic. Even solid results are often sold into, underscoring how nervous and short‑term oriented market participants have become.

Bond yields have declined, reflecting rising macro concerns and a cooling labor market. Crypto assets remain under pressure, and recent rebounds have so far failed to gain traction.

Read more

Wall Street closed a volatile week shaped by opposing forces. After a brief rebound, U.S. equities remain under pressure on a weekly basis, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq heading for their third losing week out of four. Futures ended slightly lower into the close — a familiar pattern following short-lived relief rallies.

Risk appetite has returned selectively, but confidence remains fragile. Equities are stabilizing, yet gold and silver continue to surge simultaneously. This combination reflects a market still seeking returns while aggressively hedging tail risks.

On the corporate side, Intel dominated headlines. While earnings beat expectations and AI-driven data center demand remained strong, weaker revenue guidance due to supply constraints triggered a sharp post-market sell-off. After doubling over the past year, the stock experienced a classic sentiment reset.

Beyond equities, commodities stole the spotlight. Gold reached new all-time highs near $5,000, silver is effectively trading around $100, and energy markets showed extreme sensitivity to supply shocks, underscoring the elevated volatility regime across asset classes.

Global Time Cycle Analysis – Dominant Turning Points

The following section represents a filtered analysis of approximately 60 global core assets, including major international equity indices and futures markets. Each asset undergoes a daily time-cycle analysis designed to identify potential cyclical tops or bottoms.

Ratings above +6 or below –6 indicate assets that have entered statistically significant zones where cyclical turning points become increasingly likely. The lists below highlight the highest-priority candidates.

Read more

Wall Street staged a clear rebound after the weakest session since October, shifting back into a risk‑on environment. The Dow Jones gained up to 650 points intraday, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq and small caps followed with broad participation. Notably, the S&P Small Cap 600 reached a new all‑time high, confirming improving market breadth.

The rally was driven less by resolution and more by de‑escalation. Political rhetoric eased, particularly around trade tensions and geopolitical risks, which was enough to trigger a relief rally. While losses from the prior session were not fully recovered, aggressive risk aversion has clearly receded.

On the equity side, semiconductors and selected biotech names led the rebound, while margin‑sensitive media stocks continued to struggle. Airlines surprised positively, underlining that parts of the real economy remain resilient despite elevated macro uncertainty.

Bond yields stabilized near 4.25% on the US 10‑year, the dollar found support, and gold pushed to new all‑time highs, driven by sustained central‑bank demand and growing skepticism toward US Treasuries. Oil remains in a multi‑week uptrend, while crypto markets continue to move sideways.

Overall sentiment has improved, but the market remains highly sensitive to political signals and positioning. Against this backdrop, cycle analysis becomes increasingly critical.

Global Cycle Analysis — Peaking & Troughing Assets

The following cycle framework analyzes approximately 60 international core assets, including global equity indices, sector benchmarks and futures markets. Each asset is subjected to a daily cycle analysis to identify where it stands within its dominant market cycle.

Assets with a Rating ≥ 6 indicate a potential cyclical top (peaking phase). Assets with a Rating ≤ –6 indicate a potential cyclical bottom (troughing phase). These thresholds define candidates for possible inflection points, not timing signals.

Assets in Cyclical Peaking Phase (Rating ≥ 6)

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